Unlocking the Cosmos: Statistical Model Redefines the Search for Extraterrestrial Life

It’s too early to say that we are alone in this Universe New statistical model may serve as a vital cornerstone that guides our future endeavors in tackling the very question about our existence and place in the Universe. Nana Mahroe Luis Tabat, 02 November 2019 Star Wars. Battlestar Galactica. Avatar. Star Trek. Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy. Most of us would be able to recognize at least one of these popular titles.For many decades now, space has been a topic that keeps on churning out some of the most enriching and alluring narratives in science-fiction.

It’s hard not to understand the hype over the genre. Stories about a colorful, vibrant galaxy teeming with diversity can often make us feel like there has to be more to the Universe than just us. Revved up by all these fascinating stories we may find ourselves asking, “Is there anyone else out there?” There are scientists who seek to answer this very question, dedicating their expertise in a special field of astronomy known as SETI – the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

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In SETI, astronomers look for life in space by pointing their collection of high-end detectors and observatories up at the sky, looking for what is known as a technosignature. These are signals in space that seem too uniform and coincidental to have been naturally made and are therefore used as concrete evidence to suggest that there must be an intelligent being out there. So, the goal of SETI is really a matter of casting a net wide enough that we are sure to catch any signal that happens to be passing by.

Today, our endeavors in casting this life-seeking net in space grow ever more ambitious and sophisticated. We can only guess that this sudden drive for SETI could be due to humanity’s recent courage to explore the extremes of scientific pursuits such as that of Elon Musk’s SpaceX or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) exploits in blackhole observations.

Regardless, the push for SETI is certainly stronger than it was before. As you are reading this, an ongoing global initiative dubbed “Breakthrough Listen” has humanity’s strongest detectors rapidly scanning at least 1 planet every day. Working 24/7 since 2018, it has dished out heaps of the most detailed SETI data ever.

The thing is, Breakthrough Listen is really just as steppingstone for bigger and bolder SETI projects. An article from Physics World Magazine highlights how our experience from Breakthrough Listen has helped in finalizing the design for the upcoming Square Kilometer Array (SKA) project. An upgrade from the already-titanic Breakthrough Listen, one can hardly fathom how much more SETI data would be flooding astronomers in the near future.

With backing by 12 nations contributing to a final budget of USD1.8billion, this ambitious next step for SETI is set to begin construction in 2020 with 4000 dishes planned in its design. (Picture taken from Wikipedia on the Square Kilometer Array, illustrating the likely expanse of the project) Claudio Grimaldi, a researcher from the Department of Astronomy in the University of California, Berkeley, anticipated this explosive growth in SETI data in the coming years and, together with his team, created a statistical formula to help the SETI community prepare for it.

Their findings define the boundaries in our pursuit for SETI. They discovered that, because of the way statistics work, we actually need to search only a portion of space that is 40 000 light years around Earth to reach a conclusion about life in the Universe. If we find no life in this region of space, we can say, with 100% certainty, that we truly are alone in the Universe.

Their model is based on what is known as the Bayesian theorem. Simply put, it finds the chances of a future event happening based on what is already known – it’s much like foresight but a lot more mathematical than superstitious. Mixing in concepts such as the density of stars, their luminosity (brightness) and the reach of our detectors, the formula predicts the chances of life existing in other worlds given whatever SETI data we feed into it.

We can visualize the value of looking at SETI through the lens of Grimaldi’s formula much like how important a compass is to a sailor. It is tantamount in ensuring that we have a direction to work towards – or risk being lost. Thanks to their work, we now know that we don’t have to look into every nook and cranny in our quest to find alien life. For the first time ever, we have defined an area in space that will be enough to tell us if life is teeming in the galaxy.

The research team, however, admits that their estimations do not take into account the possibility of finding primordial life – civilizations that have not yet advanced far enough to send the intergalactic technosignatures that their model is heavily reliant on. Also, who is to say that there aren’t other beings out there using forms technosignatures other than the ones we use today? Predictions made by their equation may really be an underestimated tally of the actual number of lifeforms in existence.

Despite that, Grimaldi’s formula is still essential in telling us that we should not be discouraged by all the lack of signs of alien life that our SETI pursuits have been showing so far. The aforementioned Breakthrough Listen has scanned the furthest humanity has ever reached in history at a distance of only 162 light years. Compared to the 40 000 light year limit given by Grimaldi, our strongest scan is still 240 times too small for us to rule out the possibility of otherworldly life!

So regardless of how daunting the task may seem or how embroiled we may be with problems here on Earth that keeps up from exploring what lies among the stars, SETI is still – undeniably – a project in its infancy. Our efforts in this field of astronomy have a lot of room to grow and, with this discovery, we now know for sure what we should be aiming for. The colorful worlds portrayed in science fiction that are filled with beings so diverse and so different from us is still, statistically, a likely possibility. For now, we can rest assured knowing that the Universe may not be so lonely after all.