The Myth of Demographic Winter

The Concept Paper is titled "Demographic Winter and Its Effect on Society".

According to the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, population Estimates, and Projections Sections, it is a misconception that the world's population is decreasing. In fact, our current global population is 7,174,592,903, with a daily increase of 215,060 people and an annual growth rate of 1.10%. However, there have been significant shifts in demographic patterns over time. Events like the World Wars resulted in the loss of a large portion of humanity but also triggered a population explosion.

The Baby Boom phenomenon in Western countries during the 1960s is one example of this rapid population growth.

The belief that population growth is a problem is typically associated with specific geographical boundaries. It occurs when the annual birth rate exceeds 2 per 100 women (or approximately 2% of the total population size) (Wikimedia Foundation, Inc). However, this paper will demonstrate that this belief is now considered a myth.

In 1968, Professor Paul R.

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Ehrlich from Stanford University published The Population Bomb, a controversial book predicting mass starvation in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation. This idea of a population explosion and its negative impact on society instilled fear and led to a decrease in sexual activity and a perception of babies as burdensome in Western countries. Demographers refer to this phenomenon as Demographic Winter, which resulted in declining birth rates worldwide.

The term "nuclear winter," popularized in the 1980s, describes the catastrophic environmental effects of nuclear war.

According to Feder, the potential long-term consequences of demographic decline, also known as "demographic winter," could have equally devastating effects.

It is believed that in order for a country's population to remain stable, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) should be 2.1. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman has during her child-bearing years and plays a crucial role in accounting for child mortality and stabilizing the population (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust). When a state's TFR reaches 2.1 births per woman who has completed her fertile years (which is typically around 50 years old), it indicates age stability within the population with a Net Production Rate of 1.

When a nation's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is not equal to or lower than its previous TFR, it undergoes demographic winter. This phenomenon is global, but factors such as geography and economic status determine the extent to which it occurs in different nations. Demographic winter is more prevalent in developed countries, specifically in Europe, Australia, East Asia (Japan), and North America (U.S.), which were the first to reach population maturity. Population maturity is defined as the average age of the population relative to the economic development of society. These countries also experienced significant depopulation during the World Wars and rapid population growth afterward. In this discussion of demographic winter, we will primarily focus on these countries as their population trends align more with the concept. Europe is particularly affected, with 9 out of the 10 countries with the lowest birth rates located there.

According to Feder (source), the fertility rate in Europe is 1.3, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. No European nation has a birth rate that meets the replacement level. Italy's fertility rate is even lower at 1.2, while Spain's is 1.1. As a result, these countries are projected to lose half of their population in each generation soon. In Russia, the birth rate has declined by over 50% in less than two decades, dropping from 2.4 in 1990 to 1.17 today. Additionally, there are more abortions than live births in the Russian Federation (Demographic Winter). In the United States, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was around 3.5 in the early 1960s but started decreasing significantly and fell below 3.0 by 1965 and around 2 .5 by the late 1960s, remaining relatively stable until it dropped to about 1 .8 in the mid-1970s—a drop of almost half between the early '60s and mid-'70s. However, after stabilizing at around 1 .8 for some time, the total fertility rate gradually increased from 1986 onwards and reached a value of approximately 2 .08 in 1990 , slightly below replacement level (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and The Baby Bust).

Since falling below 2.0 in 1975, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Japan has steadily decreased, reaching its lowest point of 1.26 in 2005 (Durden). In 2012, there was a drop of 13,705 births compared to the previous year, resulting in a new low of 1,037,101 babies born in Japan. This decline is commonly referred to as "demographic winter." The documentary film "Demographic Winter: A Decline of the Human Family" identifies various factors contributing to this trend including economic prosperity, the sexual revolution, women's participation in the labor force, the divorce revolution, and inaccurate assumptions. With continued economic growth in developed nations, individuals' mindset towards work is changing. Previously seen as blessings and investments by parents, babies are now viewed as additional expenses and burdens due to rising standards of living in urban areas around the world.

Realists argue that wealthier nations prioritize investing their resources in adults, particularly those who can contribute to further economic development, due to the impracticality of supporting an additional person. This preference may be influenced by the sexual revolution and feminism. In 2012, there was a decrease of 16,200 in the number of women in their twenties becoming mothers compared to the previous year. At the same time, there was an increase of approximately 8,700 births among women aged 35 to 39 and 40 to 44. This trend reflects women's empowerment and their pursuit of education, careers, and equal treatment. As more women join the workforce and prioritize their professional lives, they may choose not to have children but instead focus on their jobs.

Since 1970, there has been a steady increase in the participation rates of married women with children, particularly those with young children, in the workforce. In 1985, approximately half of all women with children under 18 were part of the labor force, compared to less than 40 percent in 1970 (Hayghe). Moreover, changes such as lower fertility rates, smaller family sizes, and delayed childbearing have enabled many women to pursue employment opportunities outside their homes. For instance, among white women, the average number of children per family decreased from 2.4 in 1970 to 1.7 in 1984; for black women, it declined from 3.1 to 2.2 children (U.S. Department of Health And Human Services).

The rise in women's participation in the labor force leads to a decrease in fertility rates. This decline is caused by factors such as the sexual revolution and increased female involvement in the workforce, along with the divorce revolution. The decrease in fertility rates is a consequence of more women gaining financial and social capabilities, which results in marriage being perceived as superficial, particularly with divorce becoming legal in developed countries like the United States. Marriage is now often delayed, and divorces are more frequent than ever before. In 1915, only 16% of marriages in the United States ended in divorce; however, by 1964, this number rose to 36%, eventually reaching approximately 43% by 1988. The increase in divorce rates is not exclusive to the United States.

According to William Goode's book World Revolution and Family Patterns (1993), data from Europe shows that the percentage of marriages expected to end in divorce nearly doubled between 1970 and the mid-1980s. In Germany, for example, it was estimated that 16% of marriages would result in divorce in 1970, but by 1985 this number had risen to 30%. France also experienced a similar increase, with rates going from 12% to 31% during this period. Australia also observed comparable trends (Weeks). This rise in divorce cases directly impacts the declining fertility rate, leading to a demographic winter. Ultimately, the main cause of this demographic winter can be attributed to the false assumption made about population growth.

In his book "The Population Bomb," Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlich argued that rapid population growth would lead to an unsustainable population explosion and food shortage, aligning with the Malthusian Theory. According to this theory, population grows exponentially while food production grows at a slower arithmetic rate, resulting in inevitable resource shortages (Erlich).

Although Ehrlich's predictions partially came true, their impact was mainly felt in the developing world and not as severe as expected. Both developed and developing countries experienced exponential growth in food production, surpassing population growth rates. As a result, there is currently an abundance of food per capita with historically low prices. Additionally, population growth rates have significantly slowed down, especially in the developed world (Erlich).

The current unfortunate reality is that this misconception continues to persist among educated individuals. This has led to government interference in population growth through the implementation of policies aimed at reducing population rates. Examples of such policies include the Reproductive Health Act in the U.S. and the One-child policy in China and Singapore. The use of the pill had a significant impact on fertility, reducing "unwanted pregnancies" by 70% in married women (Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality). Another factor influencing fertility rates is secularization, which is driven by an anti-Christian, anti-family ideology linked to Marxist views, currently spreading across much of Western civilization. This ideology has fostered a culture of death that is gradually eroding the existence of the human family. Those who believe in the meaning of life choose to have children, while those who do not, do not (Feder). It can be argued that all aspects of modernity actively work against family life, promoting singlehood, smaller families, or choosing not to have children at all. Furthermore, these issues are not easily remedied; they reflect who we are and what we have increasingly become in this modern era.

Despite the concern over a demographic winter, the population continues to grow due to various factors. Developed countries have found alternatives such as immigration in Europe and Australia to compensate for their declining population (Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality). Additionally, there is an issue of an aging population where the death rate is lower than before, resulting in a growing number of elderly individuals (Population Action International).

The effects of demographic winter on society can be categorized into three interconnected areas: biological, political, and economic. These categories are intertwined and research has shown that demographics significantly impact a country's stability, governance, economic development, and the well-being of its people (Population Action International).

An ageing population is a consequence of the biological effects of demographic winter. In 1998, there was a 48-year gap between births and peak spending of individuals. Japan experienced demographic winter after World War II as they didn't have a Baby Boom like the United States. Developed countries find themselves in an age trap or modern inverted pyramid where the number of grandparents is greater than the number of children, unlike the previous trend. Consequently, there may not be enough children to take care of the elderly. Some countries might even cease to exist.

Currently, there are fifty-nine (59) nations with below-replacement birth rates, including Russia, China, Spain, Portugal, Canada, Italy, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong (Central Intelligence Agency). These countries make up 44% of the world's population.

Globally, there are 6 million fewer children (under age 6) today compared to 1990. According to the United Nations,

if current trends continue,

,

there will be 248 million fewer children (under age 5) by 2050.

Europe's fertility rate of 1.3 is significantly below the necessary birth rate of 2.1 needed to replace the population, raising concerns about the future of countries like Italy, Spain, Russia, and France. In his book The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birth rates Threaten World Prosperity, demographer Philip Longman emphasizes that declining global birth rates profoundly impact nations' destinies and societies in the 21st century.

According to Longman, a crucial indicator of a country's fate and economic survival is its "Demographic winter." He argues that children play a vital role in maintaining a prosperous economy. For instance, Japan has an aging population with an average age above 48 years old. This has led to a decline in consumer spending and negative consequences for the economy. Historically, an aging population fails to achieve economic prosperity due to adverse effects on social security and healthcare systems caused by drastic shifts in young-to-old individuals ratio.

In the context of the elderly population decreasing and the economic burden on the younger generation, the film suggests a bleak world where intergenerational bonds are broken, resulting in abandoned and isolated grandparents in European streets. This potential desolation extends to smaller countries like Latvia, with a global depression affecting even those countries not depicted as disappearing under a blanket of snow. Economist Harry S. Dent, Jr., who specializes in demographic-based economic forecasting, predicts that the West will experience a similar aging population crisis as Japan. Additionally, the political implications of demographic winter can be observed in the voting body. Exit polls from the 2012 presidential election show that Republican candidate Mitt Romney secured a majority of white voters, particularly those aged 65 and older. This intersection represents the demographic base of the Republican Party and is diminishing in numbers.

Markos Moulitsas argues that conservatives' efforts to reduce the social safety net have made it more difficult for elderly Republicans, who compose the party's base, to survive (Atkins). Despite some people denying or rejecting this reality, it persists and will continue to do so. The demographic decline is a serious issue that not only impacts politics, biology, and the economy but also poses a risk to humanity's future existence. I uphold intellectual integrity and adhere to the highest standards of academic conduct. I am dedicated to creating an ethical learning environment that fosters honor in academic work. Academic dishonesty undermines the integrity of our institution and threatens the academic fabric of the University of the Philippines. As I believe that dishonesty is not a valid path to success, I sign this work to affirm its originality and absence of cheating, plagiarism, or knowingly providing false information."

Mary Philline Descalzo

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