Demographic Transition Theory

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

INTRODUCTION

Demographic transition theory is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The theory is explained by a model which is an idealized picture of demographic change. The aim of the theory is to explain why a society moves from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility.

Demographic transition is the actual change from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. There are many causes of why societies move from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility and these are best explained by the demographic transition model. As societies move from pre-industrial time to postindustrial periods population density changes due to change in values, technology, ways of living and many other variables.

ASSUMPTIONS

The demographic transition theory shares the same assumptions as the Neo Malthusian theory that economic development lowers fertility which is evident in the model that as societies move from pre-industrial to postindustrial the number of births are lowered.

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It also assumes that the only way of controlling population growth is through the use of contraception.

CRITICS

The transition theory is claimed to be the direct outcome of European countries the observation have taken place a long time ago and is outdated. This statement is true because the theory and model predicts what European countries have gone through not what all countries and nations would go through. The theory is only based on birth and death and does not include other aspects of population dynamics such as external migration STAGES OF THE

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

This theory has been known to have four stages but a fifth stage has recently evolved and it currently has five stages and these explain mortality and fertility.

STAGE ONE: HIGH FLACTUATING
This is has high birth and death rates and population growth is is small. Reasons for high birth rates:
High death rates and infant mortality encourages more births Lack of family planning
Children are viewed as source of income
Reasons for high death rates:
Diseases as there are no proper medicines
Famine due to few people
Lack of education
Lack of health care

STAGE TWO:
High birth rate and declining death rate. The total population begins to expand rapidly Reasons for high birth rates:
Religious beliefs
People used to having many children
Reasons for declining death rates:
Improved hygiene
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage

STAGE THREE:
Falling birth rate and continuing to fall death rate. Population growth slows down Reasons for decreasing birth rate:
Women are working as it’s the industrial period
Improvement on contraceptive technology
Change in valuation of women beyond motherhood
Presences for smaller families as they are cheaper to maintain Reasons for decreasing death rates:
Better healthcare
Improved sanitation

STAGE FOUR:
Low birth and death rates and population growth is small and fertility continues to decline. Reasons for low birth rates:
Family planning
Improved status of women
Change in personal lifestyle
Reasons for low death rates:
Improved healthcare
Improved quality of living

STAGE FIVE:
Death slightly exceeds death rate and this causes population decrease.