Future wars are likely to stem from a desire to control sufficient water resources. The concept of trinity revolves around water resources, water management and utilization. Water management remains pivotal to this all important source of national survival and development. The Government’s “Water Vision” is a step in the same direction.
Pakistan has recently embarked upon a road of economic prosperity. The need for energy in next decade will increase manifold. Similarly, the agricultural output will have to keep pace with the population explosion. Keeping in view the emerging challenges, present Government has initiated the feasibility study of three to four water reservoirs. However, inter-province rivalries, personal political agendas, lack of understanding of rising needs and loss of faith in the central government are some of the impediments in the construction of these water reservoirs.
Analyse the future requirement of water for agriculture and energy, water potential of Pakistan, steps initiated by the Government to allay provinces’ apprehensions and recommend suitable measures to facilitate the water management as well as construction of new water reservoirs in Pakistan.
Water forms basis of human existence. In the past we have been overlooking this precious gift of nature but since quite some time world has recognized it as very important natural resource. The overall depleting water resources and escalating population have forced the comity of nations to formulate water management techniques for its optimal utilization. Hence water management has become the leading topic of research and development today. Pakistan being an agrarian country relies more on this resource as agriculture is the back bone of our economy.
Moreover hydel energy being the cheapest source of energy our abundant river water sources provide us with the opportunity to meet our energy requirements through this natural source, only if we could harness them optimally. Mutual mistrust among our provinces has been the biggest hurdle in the construction of new dams. Consequently huge quantity of water flows into the Sea, while we face the threat of water scarcity. This paper covers the issue of water management in its entirety. All aspects related to the requirement of water for our energy as well as agriculture needs have been covered in detail. The very important issue related to the construction of new water reservoirs and its political implications has also been covered in fair detail. TABLE OF CONTENTS
WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Pakistan is blessed with a diverse geography providing her with all essential natural resources in abundance. Number and alignment of our rivers is the most obvious manifestation of this endowment. Rivers run along the length of the country thus making irrigation of the land very convenient. Himalayas are mainly responsible for feeding our river system. Despite loss of three Southern rivers under the arrangements of Indus Basin Treaty, concluded between India and Pakistan in 1960, our three northern rivers up till now have proven potent enough to fulfill the requirements of 150 million people. However, for some years now the water deficit is being felt, especially in agriculture sector.
This has necessitated the serious thinking for taking effective measures for water management. Pakistan is unfortunate not to have built sufficient number of dams to regulate the flow of its rivers. Indus Basin Treaty compelled Pakistan to build dams in order to divert the water to its Southern rivers as primacy of India’s right over the water of these rivers was acknowledged.
Tarbela and Mangla Dams were Pakistan’s response. However these two mega dams were only the first step in a long range water management policy. Kalabagh was the site chosen for the next Dam. Unfortunately neither the Kalabagh nor any other big dam has been built yet. The issue of Kalabagh Dam got politicized and became so controversial that despite the desire of successive governments it could not be built. Central Government’s fixation with Kalabagh project prevented the progress on any other prospective dam as well. Being unable to manage our water resources efficiently we have not been able to optimally harness our hydel energy potential and today are struggling to meet our energy requirements. Also by failing to institute modern irrigation and farming practices we have been responsible for wasting water, the most precious gift of the nature. It is important to study the issue in detail and suggest suitable measures for the better management of our water resources.
To carry out an in depth analysis of existing water distribution system and future water requirements for energy and agriculture in order to recommend suitable measures for efficient water management.
Part – I
water resources of pakistan River Water Resources Indus River System. The average annual flow of the Indus river system is 144 million acre feet (MAF). However there are huge variations in the flow at different times of the year. The 81% of the river flows and 65% of the precipitation takes place in three monsoon months. The ever expanding water needs for a growing economy and the population for meeting its food and fiber requirements and the interchanging phenomenon of floods and droughts adds complexity to the water management issue.
Current Utilization of the River Water.Of 144 MAF 105 MAF is diverted for irrigation purposes while rest flows into the sea. Indus Basin System houses 3 super dams besides 68 large dams, 19 barrages, 12 canal commands and 18000 km of drainage network. Out of 105 MAF of water that becomes available at canal head 42% infiltrates to ground water, 3% is lost to evaporation, unintended growth on banks and breaches and only 58 MAF is available at farm gate. Development Potential.Out of 144 MAF of total river flow 38 MAF escapes below Kotri annually. Thus the development potential of Indus river water system can be worked out as under:-
|Total escape below Kotri Barrage |38 MAF | |Max escape required according to 1991 water accord |10 MAF | |Likely usages by India |5 MAF | |Water Available for development |23 MAF |
8.Monsoon and westerly disturbances are two main weather systems that contribute to the rainfall in Pakistan. The average annual rainfall is 291mm (11.4 inches). Nearly two-third is received in the Kharif (summer), while the rest in the Rabi (winter). During the three Monsoon months (July-September) almost half of the rainfall is received. While a substantial portion of the rainfall occurring in the cultivated areas of the Indus Plain is consumed by crops as a consumptive use, in the foothill areas of Pakistan rainfall gives rise to flashy hill torrents, and a major portion of the flow goes waste, in the form of evaporation.
The total development potential of hill torrents is about 17MAF of which 5MAF has already been conserved through the construction of more than 500 structural interventions such as delay action dams, reservoirs, dispersion/diversion structures, flood retaining walls, etc. Thus, gross balance development potential is about 12MAF for which 1,204 sites have been identified in 13 major hill torrent areas, with financial requirements of about Rs 40 billion. Glaciers and Snow
9.Glacial area of the Upper Indus is around 22,500sq km, where on an average three to four meters of snowfall occurs every year. The Upper Indus catchments contain some of the largest glaciers in the world outside the Polar Regions. Glacier area of the Kabul River is located near Unai Pass of the Southern Hindukush, while glacial and snow melt area of Chenab and Jhelum rivers are located in the Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. The right bank tributaries of Jhelum River i.e., Kunhar and Neelum rivers carry major share of the snow melt, primarily, situated in Pakistan or along the Line of Control. Glaciers and snowmelt contribution is 85 per cent in the case of Indus, 80 per cent for Kabul, 75 per cent for Chenab and slightly over 50 per cent for Jhelum River. It is estimated that the total volume of water stored in the glacial area of Indus River is about 340MAF, while the volume of water stored in glacial area of Kabul, Chenab and Jhelum Rivers is 300MAF. Ground Water
10.From the point of view of availability of groundwater, the country can be divided into two major areas, the predominantly canal irrigated Indus Plain primarily located in Punjab and Sindh, and the areas of the NWFP and Balochistan with a limited groundwater development potential in a few localized areas. During the last 30 years or so, spectacular increase in the number of private tube wells has changed the underground paradigm entirely.
In several groundwater areas, there has been a complete Volta face. Where some years ago high groundwater was a major threat, water levels have now declined due to private tube wells development. However, the pace at which the groundwater exploitation has unfolded has added complexity of its management. The number of users is over 2.5 million farmers, who extract groundwater through their own tube wells or buy water from their neighbors. In many regions, the impact on the groundwater resources is alarming; levels are declining rapidly to infeasible pumping depths, and there is intrusion of saline water in the fresh groundwater areas through lateral or upward movement. Existing number of private tube wells in Pakistan is over 700,000 and annual groundwater extraction through private tube wells under the normal hydro-climatic conditions is of the order of 42 MAF. The province-wise sustainable development potential is:- | (MAF) |
|Provinces |Sustainable potential |
|Punjab |36 | |Sindh |8 | |NWFP |2 | |Balochistan |2 |
CURRENT WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AND FUTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY AND AGRICULTURE
Energy Needs of Pakistan by 2025
11.Pakistan’s economy is undergoing significant changes since 1998-99; the improvements made in the macroeconomic indicators are, in particular, noteworthy. The real GDP increased from 5.1 per cent in 2002-03 to 6.4 per cent in 2003-04 and was 8.5 per cent for the fiscal year 2004-05. The projected growth rate for the next five years is estimated to be 7-8 per cent. With expansion in economy the demand in energy will also increase.
Government of Pakistan’s Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) projects the growth in the demand of electricity, petroleum products, natural gas and coal at an average annual rate of 8.4%, 4.3%, 7.6%, 18.9% respectively. Although, both the demand and supply of energy has been increasing for the last decade and a half, the per capita consumption of energy in Pakistan remains low. As compared to their counterparts in Malaysia and China where per capita consumption of energy stands at 92 MBTU and 34MBTU, respectively. The per capita consumption in Pakistan is 14 MBTU. Figures 1 and 2 shows an upward trend in the supply and per capita availability of energy in tones equivalent of energy (TOE) in Pakistan since 1990.
Figure 1:Energy supply (million TOE) Source Economic Server 2004-05 [pic]
Figure 2 : Per Capita Availability in TOE
12.Energy Consumption.According to the latest economic survey, in the past 14 years from 1990-91 to 2003-04 the consumption of petroleum products, natural gas, electricity and coal increased by an annual average rate of 2.5%, 4.9%, 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively. However, one major change in consumption pattern has been registered in the consumption of oil. The use of oil has reduced since 2001, particularly in the cement industry and power generation, because the cement industry has shifted to natural gas and the power generation sector is increasingly using gas. Similarly, the consumption of various petroleum products in household and agriculture registered marked decline of 16.2 and 16.8 per cent, respectively.
This is primarily because of the availability of cheaper fuels like LPG and natural gas. However, the consumption of petroleum products has increased in transportation, industrial and other government sectors. In the last 14 years, the transport sector saw the largest use of petroleum products with a share of 48.7 per cent. The share of power sector, industry, households, other government sectors and agriculture stood at 31%, 12.1%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively.
The consumption of natural gas in the cement sector in the first nine months of fiscal year 2004-05 registered a 100 per cent increase. Similarly, for the same time period the consumption for industrial, power, commercial and household sectors jumped up by 15.5%, 12.3%, 10.5%, 3.8%, respectively. In electricity consumption, the household sector has always been the largest consumer with a share of 41.4 per cent. The share for industrial, agricultural, other government sectors and commercial consumers for the same time period (1990-04) has been 31.1%, 14.1%, 7% and 6%, respectively. Sector Wise Natural Gas Consumption From 1990 to 2004
|Sector |Natural Gas Consumption | |Power sector |35.4% | |Fertilizer |23.4% | |Industrial |18.9% | |Household |17.6% | |Commercial |2.8% | |Cement |1.5% |
13.Future Energy Forecasts.According to 2004-05 Economic Survey of Pakistan, the double digit growth in the large scale manufacturing sector has resulted in an increase in demand of electric power in some industrial sectors. The survey also projects that demand in electricity will grow at an average yearly rate of 7.9 per cent from 2005 to 2010. The table below summarizes the sector wise power demand till the year 2010. The recently approved 25 year ‘Energy Security Action Plan (ESAP)’ aims to increase Pakistan’s reliance on indigenous fuels. Before that the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) outlined similar measures. It envisages a hydel-thermal ratio of 39:61 from an existing ratio of around 28:72. The ESAP also envisages significantly reducing reliance on oil while increasing reliance on coal. The energy mix plan for the next 25 years as proposed in ESAP4 is given in under mentioned table. Sector Wise Power Demand (2005-10)
|Year |Domestic |Commercial |Agriculture |Industrial |Other |Total | |2005-06 |7,199 |1,216 |1,763 |5,891 |1,035 |15,500 | |2006-07 | | | | | | | |2007-08 |7585 |1251 |1820 |6481 |1086 |16600 | |2008-09 | | | | | | | |2009-10 |8127 |1312 |1893 |7252 |1159 |17900 | | | | | | | | | | |8783 |1354 |1,979 |8,181 |1,243 |19,600 | | | | | | | | | | |9531 |1408 |2,079 | | | | | | | | |9,267 |1,341 |23,600 |
Source: Planning Commission
Energy Mix Plan (MTOE)
| |Energy Mix Plan Projections | | | | |Current |Short Term |Medium Term |Long Term | | |2004 |2010 |2015 |2020 |2025 |2030 | |Total (MTOE) |50.5 |79.39 |120.18 |177.35 |255.37 |361.31 | |Oil |15.2 |30.0% |20.69 |26.0%
|32.51 | |Tarbela(1976) |Indus |485 |147.8 |9.30 |3478 |I,P | |Mangla(1966) |Jhelum |380 |115.8 |4.82 |1000 |I,P | |Chashma(1971) |Indus |- |- |0.61 |- |I,P | |Warsak(1960) |Kabul |250 |76.2 |0.04 |240 |I,P | |Baran(1962) |Kurram |107 |32.6 |0.03 |4 |I,P | |Hub(1983) |Hub |151 |46.0 |0.76 |- |I,W | |Khanpur(1984) |Haro |167 |50.9 |0.09 |- |I,W | |Tanda(1965) |Kohat |115 |35.0 |0.06 |- |I | |Rawal(1962) |Kurang |114 |34.7 |0.04 |- |W | |Simly (1972) |Soan |215 |65.5 |0.02 |- |W | |Bakhan(1900) |Pishin |35 |10.7 |0.04 |- |I | |Manchar Lake |Indus |- |- |0.75 |- |I | |Kinjhar Lake |Indus |- |- |0.32 |- |I,W | |Chotiari Lake |Indus |- |- |0.78 |- |I | |TOTAL |17.74 |4722 | |
Pakistan’s Hydropower Potential
|Station / Project |Capacity (MW) | |Hydel Stations in Operation |4722 | |Under Implementation |1653 | |Projects with Feasibility Studies Completed
| |Run of River |2865 | |Multipurpose |4340 | |Projects with Feasibility Studies in Hand | |Run of River |2565 | | Multipurpose |3412 | |Projects for which Feasibility Studies are to be Carried Out |21222 | |Total |40,983 |
Requirement of Water for Agriculture
15.Existing Agriculture Potential of Pakistan
a.During the last five decades, the performance of agriculture has been quite impressive with agricultural production maintaining pace with population growth. However, yields are still much below the potential and are being exceeded in other countries with similar agro-climatic conditions. Historical data of major crop production and yields in Pakistan since 1947 is given at Annexure A. b.Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of food and fibre requirements of the nation from about 18.09 Mha of land which is roughly 80% of the cultivated area.
The remaining agricultural production is contributed by 4 Mha of Barani (rain fed) areas. The cultivated area of Pakistan has increased from about 14.70 Mha in 1947 to 22.76 Mha in year 2005. c.Pakistan’s economy has always been based on agriculture, whilst the direct share of GDP contributed by agriculture has fallen over the years and is now around 25%. Agriculture is also the basis of most industries in Pakistan and thus is still a key driver in the economy and is critical to the rural economies. 16.Available Water Resources for Agriculture
a.The average annual flow of Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is approximately 144 MAF of which presently 105 MAF is being diverted for irrigation while a major portion of the balance outflows into the sea. Of the 105 MAF withdrawn by canal network, approximately 42% infiltrates to ground water reservoir while 3% is lost as evaporation or through non-beneficial consumption. The balance 55% or 58 MAF becomes available at farm gate for use in the fields. b.Another source of water is the direct overland precipitation.
The irrigated area of Indus Basin receives approximately 40 MAF of rainfall annually. Studies have indicated that considerable part of the quantity is beneficially utilized by the crops. Rainfall conservation potential outside the irrigated areas is estimated to be approximately 20 MAF. Out of this, nearly 5 MAF is being presently used through the construction of over 500 delay action dams, dispersion and flood diversion structures etc. c.The third category of water usage is the vast and readily available ground water of Pakistan. Ground water supplies over 40% of crop water requirements of the country. Latest studies indicate that there is a further developmental potential of approximately 6 MAF of groundwater. 17.Future Agriculture Water Requirements
a.The population of the Pakistan in the 1998 census was 130.6 million. The anticipated population by the year 2010 is 168 million with an annual increase of 2%, and 221 million by the year 2025 with an average annual increase of 1.81%. b.Increase in population, rapid urbanization by the year 2025, and better socio-economic conditions would put more pressure on food consumption. c.As mentioned above, the total cultivated area in Pakistan increased from 14.70 Mha in 1947 to 22.76 Mha in 2005, while irrigated area enhanced from 8.4 Mha to 18.09 Mha.
Cereal production increased from 5.2 Million tons (Mt) to 28.5 Mt during the same period. The area under cereal crops increased by about 250%; the maximum rise was in case of rice which increased by about 318% and area under sugarcane increased by 544%, which are high delta crops. Thus, both increase in area and increase in yields have contributed to higher production. Under future scenarios also, additional land and higher cropping intensities (both requiring more water) would be necessary besides the use of better seeds, fertilizer, improved field management practices etc.
It has been anticipated that future needs of food and fibre could be met both by added water inputs and non-water inputs with approximately 50:50 contribution by each source. d.Increases in agricultural production are thus to be obtained through a combination of:- (1) Increasing yields, which requires an improved agricultural policy environment, production efficiencies, prices and marketing as well as improved research and extension services (2) Increasing irrigation intensity of the existing cropped land, which requires additional water to be available which will have to be achieved through a combination of improved water management and improved efficiency and additional water availability at critical times of the year. This would require expansion of existing irrigation infrastructure. (3)Increasing the irrigated area, requiring additional/new irrigation infrastructure. e.
To meet the year 2025 requirements with a nominal annual increase of 2% in export, the agricultural water requirements at farm gate are estimated to be about 20 MAF of additional water assuming 50% increase in crop yields due to non-water inputs. For comparative purposes, the requirement for agriculture will be around 50 MAF at the farm gate assuming 25% increase in yields. f.The additional water requirement (at farm gate) for all sectors under the two scenarios is as under:- (1)Assuming 25% benefit of increase in agriculture yields (non water inputs)-48 MAF (2)Assuming 50% benefit of increase in agriculture yields (non water inputs)-28 MAF (3)Assuming 25% benefit of increase in agriculture yields (non water inputs-at canal head) – 60 MAF (4)Assuming 50% benefit of increase in agriculture yields (non water inputs-at canal head) – 37 MAF g.
In view of past experience, the target of 50% increase in agricultural yields (non water inputs) is achievable and therefore, additional water of 37 MAF at the canal head should meet all agricultural requirements. h.As opposed to the additional water requirement of 28 MAF, the water available is 23 MAF which will limit our developmental potential in various sectors. Water Management Policy
18.Priority Areas for National Water Policy. The existing National water policy was approved by the cabinet in 2005. The policy recognizes that water has become an increasingly scarce resource, requiring appropriate institutional, economic and environmental management. It requires that attention be focused on key priority areas which include:- a. Establishing a water resource data bank to serve as a repository of all water resource data collected by various agencies. b. Developing a comprehensive framework for designing water resources investments, policies and institutions. c. Adopting water pricing and incentive policies that would achieve cost recovery, water conservation and better allocation of water resources. d. Decentralizing water service delivery, involving users in planning and management of water projects and encouraging stakeholders to contribute towards policy formulation.
e. Restoring and preserving aquatic ecosystems, improving water quality and guarding against over-exploitation of ground water resources. f. Avoiding water-logging and salinity problems associated with irrigated investments by monitoring water tables and implementation of drainage networks as well as best management practices to control water pollution. g.Establishing a strong legal and regulatory framework to ensure that social concerns are met, environmental resources are protected, and monopoly pricing is prevented. Water Strategy
19.Government’s Water Vision 2020
a.Out of 77.1 MA of land suitable for agriculture, only 44.4 MA are presently being irrigated whereas existing network of canals, barrages and dams caters for water requirements for only 34.5 MA (excluding barani and chahi). An additional 22.5 MA (Sindh 3.6, Punjab 4.3, NWFP 3.0 and Balochistan 11.6) can be brought under irrigated agriculture. b. Existing shortage is 9 MAF which is likely to increase to 30 MAF by year 2025. Water management and conservation projects like brick lining etc are likely to reduce this shortage by 15-20 MAF. This shortage needs to be addressed. c.We need additional 2-3 large storage reservoirs of 6 MAF each by 2020 making available around 18-20 MAF at least, otherwise we will face drought situation. 20. Programmes Initiated by the Government. Extensive programmes for development of water resources in the sub-sectors of irrigation, drainage and reclamation, on-farm water management, and research have been prepared.
The details of the programme are available in Pakistan Water Sector Strategy report of 2002. In short, following an integrated and holistic approach, water availability will be increased by 14.67 MAF, 3.2 MA additional area will be brought under irrigation, pilot projects will be started to reuse drainage effluent after treatment, 3.0 MA of disastrous area will be reclaimed under drainage and reclamation programme, the remaining 68,500 watercourses will be improved and 0.21 MA land will be precisely levelled under National On-farm Water Management Programme. Water Distribution System
21.Overview of the Irrigation System of Pakistan.An overview of the existing irrigation system of our country is given at Annexure B:- 22.Irrigation System a.Irrigated agriculture is the major user of both surface and groundwater resources of Pakistan. The average annual river diversions for irrigation in the Indus Basin are of the order of 104.7 MAF, to irrigate over 14.6 Mha. Of this, 67.11 MAF on average are diverted during the kharif period, while 37.63 MAF are diverted during the rabi period. b. Further quantity of 41.6 MAF is pumped annually from the ground water reservoirs, of which more than 90% is used for irrigation. 23.Provincial Irrigation Infrastructure
a.Punjab.The public irrigation infrastructure in the Punjab consists of 13 barrages, 2 siphons across major rivers, 12 link canals and 23 major canal systems over an aggregate length of 34,500 km. It serves an area of 8.58 Mha. b.Sindh.Sindh has 14 publicly owned irrigation systems, which receive water from three barrages across the River Indus. These systems, with an aggregate length of 18,000 km of canals, serve an area of about 5.38 Mha. There are 13 existing surface drainage systems in Sindh, which serve a total area of over 3.5 Mha and have an aggregate length of about 4,800 km. c. NWFP
(1)NWFP has five publicly owned irrigation systems in the Indus Basin, which serve a total area of 0.34 Mha. These systems receive water from two head works across River Swat and Warsak Dam. There are six other canal systems also which serve a total of 0.13 Mha of land. (2)NWFP has over 200 “civil canals” which are community or privately owned. These irrigate an aggregate area of 0.83 Mha. There are four surface drainage systems in NWFP comprising of 456 drains. These serve a total area of 0.37 Mha. d. Balochistan.Balochistan has two canal systems, which receive water from the Indus Basin System through Guddu Barrage and Sukkur Barrage, located in Sindh.
These canal systems serve a total area of 0.33 Mha. In addition, there are 431 independent publicly owned small irrigation schemes, which serve 0.14 Mha. 24.Saliba ( Falling Flood ) Irrigation.Sailaba cultivation is also carried out on about 1.23 Mha of area in the country. However, agriculture potential of Saliba area is limited to one season only. 25.Irrigation Efficiencies.Pakistan, despite being an agrarian country, has demonstrated extremely low irrigation efficiencies. The current estimated irrigation efficiency in Pakistan is 35.5%.
This means that only 35.5% of the water that reaches the fields is actually used by the crops. Irrigation efficiency is a compound of three efficiencies i.e. canal-head efficiency, watercourse efficiency and farm efficiency. 26.Water Distribution System Losses a.The current per capita water availability at 1150 m3/person is low, with Pakistan in the category of a high water stress country. Per Capita Water Availability
|Year |Population (Million) |Per Capita Water Availability (m3) | |1951 |34 |5650 | |2005 |150 |1150 | |2010 |168 |1000 | |2025 |221 |800 |
Source: WAPDA Annual Reports
b.The seepage losses in the irrigation system are also very high at 61%. Seepage Losses in Irrigation System
|Location |Delivery at Head (MAF) |Losses | | | | % |MAF | |Main and Branch Canals |106 |15
|16 | |Distributaries and Minors |90 |8 |7 | |Watercourses |83 |30 |25 | |Fields |58 |30 |17 | |Crop Use |41 |– |– | |Total |– |61 |65 |
Source: WAPDA Annual Reports
27. Water Distribution and Sharing
a.Till 1991, water was shared on historical average basis worked out from 1977-1982. Share of provinces as per this average was; Punjab – 51.61%, Sindh – 41.44%, NWFP – 5.08% and Balochistan – 1.87% b. 1991 inter Provincial Water Apportionment Accord (1)On 16 March 1991 an agreement was signed unanimously by the four Chief Ministers of the Provinces for sharing of water including the periods of surpluses and shortages. The agreement is known as Water Accord 1991. (2)The accord had following two important features:- (a)It protected the existing uses of canal water in each Province. (b)It apportions the balance of river supplies, including flood surpluses and future storages among the provinces. (3)The province wise allocation of water is as under:- |Province |Kharif |Rabi |Total | | |( MAF ) |( MAF ) |( MAF ) | |Punjab |37.07 |18.87 |55.94 | |Sind |33.94 |14.82 |48.76 | |NWFP |5.28 |3.5 |8.78 | |Balochistan |2.85 |1.02 |3.87 | |Total |77.34 |37.01 |114.35 |
(4)Balance River supplies including flood supplies and future
storages were to be distributed as under :- (a)Punjab-37%
(5)As Sindh asserted 10 MAF as minimum requirement for escapage to sea, down stream Kotri, and studies indicated a lower figure, the need for further studies to determine the exact requirement was accepted. (6)It was agreed that there will be no restrictions on the provinces to undertake new projects within their agreed shares. (7)The para 14 (a) of the Accord says that ‘system wise allocation will be worked out on ten daily basis and will be attached with the Accord as part and parcel of it.’ (8) Para 14 (b) of the Accord says ‘The record of actual average system uses for the period 1977 – 1982 would form the guideline for developing future regulation pattern. c.Inter Provincial Ministerial Committee meeting on Water Issues – 1994.In this meeting chaired by Federal Minister for Water and Power, Mr Ghulam Mustafa Khar, Punjab proposed to share shortages of water between Sindh and Punjab on the basis of 1977-1982 average use.
The champions of the Sind cause like mr Rasool Baksh Paleejo and Engineer Abdul Majid Kazi assert that the proposal was bitterly opposed by the representatives of Sind as considered to be in violation of 1991 Accord. However in the minutes to the meeting it was shown that Sindh had agreed to the subject proposal. Engineer Abdul Majid Kazi suggests that on historical average use basis, as desired by it, Punjab does not share any shortage and instead every year draws 1.52 to 2 MAF more than its share as fixed by the 1991 Accord for the shortage period. Moreover it is alleged that while showing system wise uses of water Punjab also included two canals which were not functioning at that time but were only projects under consideration. Thus due to these allegations whole accord lost its sanctity and became controversial.
PROPOSED WATER RESERVOIRS AND APPREHENSIONS OF SIND AND NWFP Requirement of Dams for Pakistan 28.In view of pivotal importance of agriculture in the overall economy, water potential development merited a continuing and well planned policy implemented over the years. On the contrary, Pakistan has witnessed a strange complacency and lack of commitment since the construction of Tarbela. Pakistan has certainly lost both in time and in national productivity and today is faced with a serious situation. This reflects on the grave situation that the country will face unless a policy decision on the construction of new dams is taken, purely on technical and economical rather than on political grounds. Future Water Requirement
29.Future water requirement for various purposes will be as fol:- a.Water Requirement – Per Capita.Per capita water available in Pakistan in 1947 was 5000 cum per annum, which has come down to 1200 cum in year 2001 and will reduce to 800 cum in year 2025. Per capita water requirement is estimated to be 1375 cum. b. Water Requirement for Growing Food.Pakistan has 29.9 Mha cultivable area out of which 22.76 Mha is under cultivation, but only 18.09 Mha of this area is canal irrigated. All canal-irrigated areas of Pakistan produce a total of 114.32 million tons of food products which is even below the present requirement of 137.5 million ton. With 2% annual population growth, the requirement will soon increase to a level of crisis situation. c.Water for Hydropower.In past 20 years hydropower share has already reduced from 60% to 34%. Thermal power generation being several times as expensive, the electricity tariff has gone up. At 8% growth rate, power shortage is likely from 2006 onward.
An Overview of Proposed Projects
30.Kalabagh Dam is a proposed multipurpose project on the River Indus, located 92 miles downstream of its confluence with the River Kabul in Pakistan, at the junction point of the River Indus and River Swan, 100 miles south west of Islamabad. Technical Aspects / Energy and Water Potential
31.The water availability at the site of Kalabagh dam will be 90MAF. Technical aspects of the dam are as under :- a.Salient Features
| |Gross/Live Storage Capacity |7.9 MAF/6.1 MAF | |Retention Level |Max-915 Ft AMSL / Min-825 Ft AMSL | |POWER FACILITIES | |Unit Size/ Penstocks |300 MW/12 No | |Turbine Type / Design Head |Francis Type/ 170 Feet | |Power House |Indoor Type | |Installed Capacity |2400 MW (Initial); 3600 MW (Ultimate) | |Average Annual Energy |12400 GWH |
b.Resettlement Issues/Land Affected
|Province |Population to be resettled |Land Affected (Acres) | | | | Barani | Irrigated |Total | |Punjab |78,000 |21,600 |2,900 |24,500 | |NWFP |42,000 |2,900 |100 |3,000 | |Total |120,000 |24,500 |3,000 |27,500 |
32.Besides making up for the capacity loss in reservoirs, KBD would make substantial contribution to firming up the irrigation supplies not only for new projects but additional allocation agreed by the provinces under Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) of 1991. Further, it would add a large amount of cheap hydropower to the National Grid through its installed power. Following are certain factors to be considered while analyzing the priority of the dam and suggesting timeline for its construction. a.Project Benefits.Benefits of the dam are:-
(1)Availability of water round the Year.
(2)Cheap Electric Power on Large Scale. Kalabagh with its installed capacity of 2400 MW (ultimate 3600 MW) would add to the system a very large chunk of cheap hydro-power. In an average year, 11413 million kilowatts hours (MKWh) of electricity would be generated at Kalabagh. Average power benefits are estimated at Rs. 42 Bn per annum and the energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20 million barrels of oil per year. (3)Flood Protection.Kalabagh Dam reservoir will be drawn down at the start of monsoon flood season and will not be refilled until late in the season. Hence, it would reduce the frequency and severity of flooding along the Indus particularly between the dam site at Indus/Punjab confluence, 300 miles downstream. (4)Benefits to the Economy.
On a conservation basis, the overall direct benefits of Kalabagh Dam would be around Rs 25 billion per annum. Thus the investment cost of project would be repaid within a very short period of 9-10 years. b.Controversies.Kalabagh dam has gathered a lot of controversy, especially due to the apprehensions of NWFP and Sindh. The salient apprehensions of NWFP and Sindh regarding the Kalabagh Dam Project, along with the facts gathered on the basis of technical studies are appended below:-
|NWFP’s Apprehensions |Factual Position | |Possibility of flooding of Nowshera & Peshawar |Modern flood control system would provide | | |adequate warning (Tarbela also online) | |Adverse affects on Drainage of Mardan, Pabbi & |Conservation level of KBD is 915’- lower than | |Swabi |lowest gr lvl of these areas | |Fertile cultivated land would be submerged |2,900/100 acres of Barani/ irrigated lands would | | |be submerged | |Large population displaced |Resettlement of affectees-Top priority | |SINDH’s Apprehensions |Factual Position | |No water is available for filling Kalabagh Dam |35 MAF being wasted annually-15 MAF is available | | |for storage | |Sindh will convert into desert |
Sindh’s Canal withdrawals would increase by 2 MAF| | |after KBD | |Sailaba area would go out of production due to |Flood peaks of 300,000 cusecs would still be | |construction over river |coming & water supply through tube wells will be | | |made round the year | |Indus Delta Mangrove Forests would vanish |No significant impact-as minimum required water | | |will still be flowing below Kotri | |Fish production would reduce below Kotri |No evidence could be established to support this | | |apprehension | |Project is Federally funded but Royalty would go to|It is a constitutional matter and can be resolved| |Punjab | |
33.The Diamer-Bhasha Dam project site has been identified about 314 km upstream of Tarbela dam on the River Indus near the Chilas River and about 165 km south of Gilgit city. The development of a high dam at Basha will create significant storage capacity in the Indus valley between Raikot bridge and Dasu-Sazin gorge. The selected axis is the first suitable site for the construction of such a dam downstream of the relatively wide and flat reach of the river dominated by the town of Chilas. Salient Features
34.Salient features of the dam are as under:-
|Description |Concrete Gravity Dam At Axis-D Roller Compacted Concrete Construction | |Reservoir | | |Gross Capacity |9.04 MAF (11.15 Bcm) | |Live Capacity |7.34 MAF (9.05 Bcm) | |Full Reservoir Level |B.1170 M | |Powerhouses | | |Location & Type |Underground, One On Each Bank | |No Of Units |12units, Each-375 MW(6 On Each Powerhouse) | |Total Installed Cap |4500 MW (16,770 Gwh) | |Cost (Approx) |$ 6.721 Billion | |Const Pd |7 Yrs |
35.Related Technical Issues and Solutions. There were some concerns by the technical experts on certain technical grounds. All such issues have been addressed. The significant ones are:- a.Seismic Hazards.Diamer-Bhasha dam will be located in a seismically sensitive area. There are certain researches that indicate that the impoundment of water in the vicinity of faulted area poses a potential impact towards increasing the earth tremors. b.Power Transmission.Dam site is located far away from the load centre, therefore, the power generated as an output of the project would be linked up with the national grid with lot of difficulties. First, the transmission lines have to be built through 325 Kms of rugged mountains.
This option is very costly and difficult to construct and implement. The alternate transmission routes will cost US $ 986 million, which is 15% of the total financial cost of the dam. c.Relocation/Up Gradation of KKH.120 km of the Karakoram Highway (KKH) is also expected to be submerged. In order to carry heavy equipment to the dam site through KKH, improvement in its present condition would be required. Therefore, KKH will have to be up graded and relocated to facilitate the construction of the dam, transmission routes and other related infrastructure. Controversies
The Diamer-Bhasha Dam was inaugurated by the Prime Minister of Pakistan on 28 February, 2006. Following are some controversies surrounding the dam:- a.Settlement of boundary dispute.
b.Members of Northern Areas Legislative Council have raised the issue of the share of royalty accrued from the revenue of project. As per constitution the royalty will go to the province in which it is being constructed. c.Some Peoples’ Representative organizations raised the issue of resettlement. About 40,000 people would be affected by the Dam. Resettlement of the local people is an important aspect, which becomes more serious where individual landholdings are comparatively small and the cultivable area is scarce due to mountainous terrain. d.Members of Northern Areas Legislative Council and other People’s Representative organizations demanded change of the name of Bhasha Dam to Diamer Dam. The project was renamed as “Diamer-Bhasha” dam instead of Bhasha dam on their insistence. Skardu (Katzarah) Dam
37.The “Skardu Dam” site is located in Baltistan, about 3 km upstream of Ayub Bridge on River Indus, about 16 km down stream of Skardu town, at a place named Katzarah. The dam site was first identified by a Wapda team during 1960. This site did not receive much attention earlier because of access problems. Later reconnaissance level studies were carried out by Chass T. Main (Consultants) during 1966. The costs for 5.2 MAF and 8.0 MAF reservoir capacity projects were worked out as $509 million and 588 million respectively at that time, however, the latest visualization of the Skardu Dam project contemplated by the present government is of a much bigger dam. Technical Aspects / Energy and Water Potential
38.Pre-feasibility of the Skardu (Katzara) dam has been carried out. It is a project for the next generation. This dam is going to be the world’s largest dam having a potential of up to 35 MAF storage capacity and up to 15,000 MW of hydel power. The estimated life is reported as 1000 years. 39.Salient Features.Salient features of the dam are as under:- |Gross storage |8 MAF(Studies are on for 35 MAF) | |Live storage |5.2 MAF(Studies are on for 15 to 35 MAF) | |Power |5000-15000 MW | |Cost (approx.) |$ 30-40 Bn | |Const schedule |By 2015 | |Water availability
|27 MAF |
40.Pre Feasibility Studies Including Environmental & Technical Issues.Pre-feasibility study of the dam is under way. The crucial aspect of the project that would receive special study is the back-water effect of big storage above the gorge and the area of land that would be inundated as a result of its construction. Large tracts of inhabited areas of Baltistan and almost all the developed communication infrastructure would be submerged. According to the survey at Katzara site, even a dam with 8 MAF storage, would drown the entire Skardu and Shigar valleys, and the population affected would be more than 160,000.
All the strategic roads and the only airport as well as all the agricultural land and fruit-bearing area of Skardu and Shigar would be submerged. Hill slopes rise vertically and there is no place for resettlement of displaced populations. There is no agricultural land available at the top of the hills. The dam height required, for 8 MAF storage is 150 metres; for 35 MAF storage the dam height required will be about 300 metres. 41.
This is an unprecedented height which neither geology nor seismology allows. Another important aspect is that, though, the site has potential for power generation, but the extension of transmission line all the way to the load centre through very difficult terrain would pose serious construction and O&M problems. The full hydel power generation capacity cannot be utilized locally. Similarly construction of the Dam itself in the near future would entail enormous logistic costs. During the feasibility studies, these technical aspects would be investigated thoroughly. Outcome of the feasibility study would provide direction for further courses of action. Akohri Dam
42.The Akhori dam would be constructed on Nandana Kas, a left bank tributary of the Haro River with a capacity of 7 MAF and live storage capacity of 6 MAF. The water availability at the site of Akhori is 14 MAF. Technical Aspects / Energy and Water Potential
43.Salient features of the dam are as under :-
|Gross storage |7 MAF | |Live storage
|6 MAF | |Power potential |600 MW (2100 GWH Per year) | |Const schedule |By 2015 |
44.Pre Feasibility Studies.Presently, the technical feasibility progress on Akhori dam stands at 78% and the financial progress at 64.55%. The geological mapping of 25,000 acres out of 74,500 acres is complete along with paper work on diversion of water, power channel and spillways. 45.Environmental and Resettlement Issues.A total of 59,217 acres of land would be submerged and a population of 49,320 would be displaced. Analysis
46.From the study of above following has been analysed :-
a. By 2010 Pakistan will face a power deficit of 4401 MW. b.Currently Pakistan has an unhealthy energy mix with significant dependence on the expensive furnace oil to produce thermal power. c. Private sector has only been involved in thermal power generation whereas there is lot of scope for private sector in hydro power sector as well. d.National Water Policy is quite comprehensive policy covering all aspects related to water management and distribution, but it lacks implementation. e.Government has recognised that 22.5 MA of additional land can be brought under irrigated agriculture. In order to meet the existing shortage of 9 MAF, 2 dams are required to be constructed immediately (before 2016), whereas to meet the requirements of 2025 additional 2 dams are required to be constructed by 2025. f.Approximately 44 MAF of sub surface water can be used for agriculture. g.Pakistan’s agriculture mainly relies on surface waters available through IBIS, however the available water is decreasing due to distribution losses. h.Due to non availability of water especially in Rabi period the reliance on ground water has increased. i.Pakistan’s irrigation efficiency is quite low (35.5%). j.Lately the agriculture performance has been good yet it is much below the potential primarily because of inadequate availability of canal water at critical times.
k.Rainfall conservation potential outside irrigated area is approximately 20 MAF.
Only 2-3 MAF is planned to be utilized by year 2025 while the remaining can also be utilized. l.1991 water accord apportioned about 10 MAF water to provinces over and above what was available. Therefore assuming that water storages would be built in future. m.Pakistan’s river flows are subject to great seasonal variations. On the whole Pakistan has sufficient water to meet its needs. n.Due to inadequate storage capacity substantial water is flowing into sea that can be used for irrigation purposes. If water resources are not harnessed Pakistan will soon face serious water shortage problems. o.Water dispute between Punjab and Sind has the history of more than a century. Sind does not approve of any project that may divert or obstruct the free flow of waters of Indus river system. In Sind deep mistrust of Punjab and Federal Government exists over water sharing issue. p.
Pakistan lacks accurate and reliable data base of its river usages and flows. Almost all concerned bodies and committees have presented different figures purporting them to be right. It has added to the mistrust and allowed vested interests to challenge any technical evidence that Government may produce in support of its argument. q.Kalabagh dam is an explosive political issue that if carried out without consensus can have disastrous consequences for the federation.
47.Diversification of Energy Resources.In a current unhealthy energy mix of oil, gas and hydel power there is a need to increase the share of hydel, coal and nuclear energy. Current share of coal in total energy is only 6%. With the available reserve of 160 billion tons of coal this share can be easily increased to 20% in 10-15 years. On nuclear side the share can be increased from 1% to 8%. Furnace Oil is the most expensive form of producing thermal energy. There is a need to reduce its share from current 16% to a more economical level of 5%. 48.Developing Hydro Energy Potential.Pakistan is fortunately endowed with great hydropower potential and since hydropower is a natural renewable source of energy, it is necessary to exploit it to its maximum extent. Only 6459 MW is currently being utilized out of estimated hydro power potential of more than 40000 MW.
Pakistan will face a power supply deficit of 7200 MW by 2010. Even if it is not possible to build irrigation dams now, still the work on hydro projects should be continued. Private sector should be encouraged to invest in small size hydro projects, for which sites have already been identified. Besides this there is a need to substantially cut the current level of 22% transmission losses of WAPDA. 49.Water Conservation Measures.To increase the amount of water available at farm gate we need to brick line all our water channels. Though an expensive option yet it will save a substantial amount of water. Besides this we also need to educate our farmers on modern irrigation practices and make the required equipment available at affordable prices.
Charging the fee for irrigation water through installation of water meters will help in persuading the farmers in conserving water through more economical methods like sprinkle or drop irrigation. More over change in crop cultivation method can also save substantial amount of water. In Malaysia 28% saving in water use was achieved when they changed from practice of transplanting rice to wet seeded rice. 50.Confidence Building Measures for Sind
a.Interpretation of 1991 Accord.Water accord of 1991 is a blessing for the Federation. Consent of Sindh was obtained after lot of efforts. Any attempt to scrap it in an effort to reach a better agreement will open a Pandora’s box. Conflict exists over the interpretation of para 14 a and para 14 b. It is recommended that interpretation of these two provisions be referred to the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Whatever the verdict it must be accepted by both Punjab and Sindh. b.Council of Common Interest.Council is a constitutional mechanism for solving matters of dispute among provinces.
However in past in hope of finding early consensus through other means it has been frequently bypassed. Almost all other measures like technical, independent and parliamentary committees have ended in controversy. It is suggested that the constitutional forum of Council of Common interest be given due time for debate. It will be slow but solution arrived at will be more long lasting. c.Water Policy Board.It is recommended that a top water body with equal representation from all provinces be formed.
The nomination of members be subject to approval by the Senate. It must have power to take decisions for the water sharing and development of water resources in Pakistan. Decisions should be taken on simple majority basis. The appeal against its decisions be made only to the Council of Common Interest. IRSA should act as secretariat of this board. d.The Data on Water Flows.Much of the confusion has risen because WAPDA in past has been presenting different data about water flows at different occasions. WAPDA must maintain yearly data that be made public on an agreed date. Telemetry system installed by WAPDA can help in maintaining accurate data of water flows into various channels.
IRSA is reluctant to take over this system because of lack of funds and manpower required for operating this system. Federal Government should intervene to provide the necessary means to IRSA as this will reduce the mistrust among provinces. It is also recommended that representatives from all provinces should be posted at all distribution sites and telemetry stations. e.Studies for Ecological Impact of Dams on Sindh. Studies to determine ecological impact in various areas like sea intrusion, fisheries, mangroves etc should be undertaken by well reputed international experts.
The findings must be made public. Instead of refuting their claims plans to off set the negative impacts should be prepared and published for all to know. f.Financial Package for Sindh.As in the case of Indus Water Treaty coming to negotiating table with a financial package can prove to be a sufficient incentive for a breakthrough in reaching agreements. A federally funded project for upgradation and improvement of Sind’s irrigation system to include strengthening of the canal structures, brick lining of water channels and laser leveling of agricultural fields is required. g. Time Specific Allocations of Water.Since Sindh requires water earlier than Punjab for sowing of it’s Kharif crop, the requisite allocation out of its total annual share of water, must be clearly specified for provision during a certain time period. However, since Punjab would then have to rely on expensive ground water through tube wells during this time, an offsetting subsidy may be given to Punjab farmers on their tube wells during this period. 51.Incentive for NWFP.NWFP must be given a right bank canal from Indus to irrigate its hitherto un-irrigated areas of southern NWFP. Upto 500,000 acres of land can be irrigated in DI Khan district alone.
This is likely to prove a sufficient incentive for NWFP to agree to the construction of Kalabagh dam. 52.Construction of Dams.Construction of dams though vital for the secure future of Pakistan yet cannot supersede the importance of its existence as a federation. Therefore no arbitrary decision should be taken over the controversial issues like Kalabagh dam. Meanwhile no time should also be wasted for the development of water resources through construction of reservoirs. For this it is suggested that work on dams which are not marred in controversy should be initiated immediately. Government’s decision regarding Basha dam is prudent. Akhori dam is another such project that can be started right away. For a start only carry over dams should be constructed instead of irrigation dams. This may lead to restoration of confidence and pave way for irrigation dams like Kalabagh. Conclusion
53.Fresh water is a precious resource. With increasing population of the world it will keep dwindling, becoming ever more scarce. Pakistan is blessed with sufficient resources of fresh water. However with tremendous increase in population Pakistan can no more enjoy the luxury of wasting its river waters. It is a fact agreed upon by all concerned parties that we are letting flow water into the Arabian Sea that could fill 3-4 huge dams. This only because that we can not trust each other. Moreover our agricultural practices are outdated and our irrigation system loses half of the original amount of water that becomes available at canal head. It is time that effective steps are taken to effect better management of our water resources. It is also very important to eliminate mistrust among provinces and find a mechanism that could allow development of water resources.
OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN’S IRRIGAION SYSTEM
|No of major reservoirs |3 | |No of barrages |16 | |No of head works |2 | |No of inter – link canals |12 | |No of canal
system |44 | |No of water courses |107000 | |Length of canals |56073 Km | |Length of water courses |1.6 Million km | |Average anual water diversions |104.7 MAF | |Ground water abstractions |41.6 MAF | |No of tube wells |More than 550,000 | |Irrigated area |36 MA | |Average escapages to the sea |39.4 MAF |
Source: M.A. Bhatti, Water Resources of Pakistan: Status and Issues, 1999
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