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On the 23rd of June 2016, the United Kingdom created a lot of controversy around the EU about the referendum which was called ‘Brexit’. This term is a contraction that stands for ‘British- Exit, this is based on the “Article 50”, which states that the UK will not longer be part of the EU. On the 29th of March 2017, Theresa May signed the article, which stated that the United Kingdom will no longer be apart of the EU. (Floyd, 2017) This essay suggests that the main direct causes were fear of immigration, fear of terrorism, and cheaper labor.
However, it also looks at the indirect causes of the vote to leave the European union such as media campaign, the huge number of refugees and desire of independence. Then the essay will explore the possible short-term effects such as uncertainty, the value of the sterling pound and the increase of foreign holiday prices and will look forward to the possible long term effects such as export prices, immigration and Scotland’s.
independence. Finally, this essay will conclude the discussion about the causes and effects of the Brexit vote by giving a final considered judgment.
There is a number of direct causes regarding the vote to leave the European Union. One of the biggest influences on voting to leave the EU was fear of immigration, according to the guardian ‘fear of immigration drove the leave victory- not immigration itself'(Travis) which means that they voted to leave because of the fear of immigration not because of a number of immigrants coming into the United Kingdom.
There are many reasons of the citizens of Britain being afraid of immigration one of the reasons is having workers willing to work for relatively low pay which is a downside because it will allow employers to ignore productivity, training, and innovation. (“The Pros And Cons Of Migration | EMBRACE”, 2017) In addition, they would not need to acknowledge the choice made by different nations and they would not need to tune into European presidents (Telegraph View, 2016).
Furthermore, solid media campaign was made to persuade individuals to vote to leave and now and then it was only a false publicity, for example, the vote leave fight transport inferring that the £350 million seven days sent to the EU would be better spent in financing NHS (Telegraph View, 2016). One of the indirect causes of Brexit is the huge numbers of refugees according to the refugee council in 2015-2016 approximately 4305 refugees have applied for asylum, there is an ongoing fear that it might cause a large number of refugees to enter the UK. (“Asylum Statistics”) The UK has a desire for independence, they want to be there own nation, if they do leave The EU, it will have an increase in the countries nationalism whereas, a lot of citizens desired to implement the old British laws. However, having the final say in the British court instead of the EU court where only Britain will be involved in any law implication. In addition, they would not need to acknowledge the choice made by different nations and they would not need to tune into European presidents (Telegraph View, 2016).
The vote to leave the EU caused a drastic short-term effect that plummeted the Sterling Pound. 24th of January 2017 the supreme court took a decision to hold a parliamentary vote to trigger article 50, where it caused the pound dropped from 1.252 to 1.245 (Zlata Rodionova, 2017). A lot of sectors were hit, such as FTSE 100 declined around over 8% and banks like Barclays and Lloyds that drastically dropped down to around 20% (BBC News, 2016). With a continued fall of the pound, at 20% less of the dollar than it was under the watchful eye of the submission, laws of economic aspects propose that this will deliver a complex expansion, generally around 1.6%. For example, the cost of leaving will increase due to higher prices of food and clothes this means that the British Government is going to have to increase the national minimum wage, in order to meet the cost of living and keep their citizens happy. (“Living Costs And Food Survey- Office For National Statistics”)
According to The Telegraph the value of the pound will change and it will cause the prices of holidays to increase, however, even if the pound is 20% percent weaker not only it will make foreign holidays more expensive but it will increase the cost of the travel itself because of the fuel used for planes or ships, the only way this can be fixed is if the price of oil drops which means the UK would have to buy more oil, this will lead to cheaper fuel and that will make the prices of traveling itself to foreign countries cheaper. (Trend, 2017)
The possible Long-term effect includes the rise of imports were, all import prices on products are going to rise by approximately 8%, for example, fruits and olive oil will rise in price once the UK and the EU part ways. (Butler, 2017) According to The independent, the harm to Britain’s merchandise exporters of leaving the European Union without another facilitated commerce bargain set up would be at any rate £4.5bn a year and more then likely numerous products of that. (Chu, 2017) However exploring the rise of imports after Brexit, it has shown that importers face £1.2bn rise in costs after Brexit because Loss of access to organized commerce bargains that the coalition has hit with 50 or more nations around the globe hailed up by Open Britain. (“Importers Face £1.2Bn Rise In Costs After Brexit, Says Study, 2017”)
The EU is a solitary market in which no taxes are forced on imports and fares between part states. “More than 50 for every penny of our fares go to EU nations,” (Brexit,2017) According to Sky News, Enrollment of the alliance implies we have dependably had a say over how exchanging principles are drawn up. (“EU Membership: Reasons For And Against Leaving”)
England likewise profits in terms of professional career bargains between the EU and other world forces. “The EU is at present consulting with the US to make the world’s greatest unhindered commerce territory,” says the BBC, “something that will be exceptionally gainful to British business.” (Brexit,2017)
Secondly, Although numerous people question that leaving the EU will acquire benefits on account of decreased movement actually EU migration has done no damage by any means. The EU migrants are accomplished and liable to work, thusly they support UK efficiency paying open transportation and benefits. Furthermore, leaving the EU will give the UK what they wanted which is the desire for independence this will result in a major increase of nationalism. The UK has been apart of the EU for 44 years, the EU has helped build peace and democracy with other EU states, leaving the EU would result in the UK being vulnerable to war and fall-outs with other national, therefore predicting what will happen in the UK after leaving the UK the possibilities are endless. (Anon, 2016).
Brexit has had a major effect on Scotland where Scotland has been getting a lot of support from the EU, Scotland did not like the idea of leaving EU, where they ended up having there own referendum to leave the EU, which was rejected by Theresa may, she stated ‘it is not the right time now’. “Theresa May Rejects Calls For Pre-Brexit Scottish Referendum”. Ft.com. N.p., 2017. Web. 13 Apr. 2017. However, if Scotland does become independent it will gain exclusive powers such as the policies that are currently held by Westminster such as Defence and foreign policies. “Theresa May Rejects Calls For Pre Brexit Scottish Referendum”. Ft.com. N.p., 2017. Web. 13 Apr. 2017.
In conclusion, the referendum shocked the world, because the research that has been undertaken in this assignment, some of the direct causes has become clearer, and painted the bigger picture where the fear of immigration and fear of terrorism were connected to the European Union. However, this research has also shown that there were some indirect causes such as the media campaigns and the desire of independence, these indirect causes may have over influenced the vote. It is impossible to predict all the effects of Brexit but some short term effects maybe uncertainty, the value of the sterling pound and the increase in the prices of foreign holidays. Looking into the future the long term effects of the votes could be an increase in export prices, less immigration and Scotland’s incipience.
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