Confirmation Bias Essay
Confirmation bias can influence perceptions is about not only what has already occurred but also our predictions of what yet occur. Confirmation bias can generate their own confirmations, some of these perceptions and predictions (Myers, 2012, p. 72). The phenomenon of confirmation bias starts with overconfidence, which can originate in a lack of knowledge regarding a topic or task. It I was to ask someone that is overconfident if they were good at some task or operation in which they no experience or expertise, they would answer with a resounding affirmation that they would be good at any task they do. However, this overconfidence may only be born of an ignorance of what the task or operation really requires to be performed successfully. Sometimes it is our memories that lead us astray into a false confidence.
Remembering times when we were “almost” right perhaps (Myers, 2012, p. 75). We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we wanted to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions. Intellectual deceit is a phenomenon that fortifies and cultivates the occurrence of confirmation bias. Myers (2012) states “The “intellectual conceit” evident in judgments of past knowledge (“I knew it all along”) extends to estimates of current knowledge and predictions of future behavior. We know we’ve messed up in the past. But we have more positive expectations for our future performance in meeting deadlines, managing relationships, following an exercise routine, and so forth (p. 72).
Another statement by Myers (2012) is “The construction of positive memories brightens our recollections” (p. 77). I believe this tendency helps us not only to develop enough intellectual deceit to become overconfident which leads to bias, but also this inherent psychosocial, psychological trait or habit causes us to recall our previous thoughts, intentions, and actions in such a way that sheds favorable enough light on them for us to then perceive if not generate some sort of confirmation of our bias.