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Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model to Simulate Current and Future Water Demand in the Blue Nile

Categories: DemandFutureWater

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiPaperiReviewiiii ApplicationiofitheiWateriEvaluationiandiPlanningi(WEAP)iModelitoiSimulateiCurrentiandiFutureiWateriDemandiinitheiBlueiNile

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiJunaidiShafique,18L-2063,MSiCiviliEngineering

DepartmentiofiCiviliEngineering,iNationaliUniversityiOfiComputeriandiEmergingiSciences,Lahore.

Abstract

TheiriparianicountriesiofitheiNileihaveiagreeditoicollaborateiinitheidevelopmentiofiitsiwateriresourcesiforisustainableisocioeconomicigrowth.iCurrentlyithereiisisignificantipotentialiforiexpansioniofihydropoweriandiirrigationiinitheiBlueiNileiRiveriinibothiEthiopiaiandiSudan.iHowever,itheilikelyiconsequencesiofiupstreamidevelopmentionidownstreamiflowsihaveinotibeenifullyiassessedianditheiwateriresourceiimplicationsiofidevelopmentiinibothicountriesiareiunclear.iAgainstithisibackground,itheiWateriEvaluationiAndiPlanningi(WEAP)imodeliwasiuseditoiprovideianiassessmentiofibothitheicurrentisituationiandiaifuturei(2015)iscenario.iTheifutureiscenarioiincorporatedinewiirrigationiandihydropowerischemesionitheimainistemiofitheiNileiandiitsiprincipalitributaries.iDataiforialliexistingiandiplannedischemesiwereiobtainedifromitheibasinimasteriplansiasiwelliasifromischemeifeasibilityistudies.iWateriuseiwasisimulatedioveriai32-yeariperiodiofivaryingirainfalliandiflow.

Introduction

TheiBlueiNileiRiveri(knowniasitheiAbayiiniEthiopia)iisitheimostiimportantitributaryiofitheiNileiRiver,iprovidingioveri62%iofitheiNile’siflowiatiAswani(WorldiBank,i2006).iBothiEgypt,ianditoiailesseriextentiSudan,iareialmostiwhollyidependentioniwaterithatioriginatesifromitheiNile.iThisidependencyimakesitheichallengesiofiwateriresourcesimanagementiinithisiregionianiinternationaliissuei(Waterbury,i2002).

TheiBlueiNileirisesiinitheiEthiopianihighlandsiinitheiregioniofiWestiGojamiandiflowsinorthwardiintoiLakeiTana,iwhichiisilocatediatianielevationiofijustiunderi1,800im.iItileavesitheisoutheasternicorneriofitheiLake,iflowingifirstisouth-east,ibeforeiloopingibackioniitself,iflowingiwestianditheniturninginorth-westicloseitoitheiborderiwithiSudan.iInitheihighlands,itheibasiniisicomposedimainlyiofivolcaniciandiPre-Cambrianibasementirocksiwith

ApplicationiofitheiWateriEvaluationiandiPlanningi(WEAP)iModelitoiSimulateiCurrentiandiFutureiWateriDemandiinitheiBlueiNile

smalliareasiofisedimentaryirocks.iTheicatchmentiisicutibyideepiravinesiiniwhichitheimajoritributariesiflow.iTheivalleyiofitheiBlueiNileiitselfiisi1,300imideepiiniplaces.iTheiprimaryitributariesiiniEthiopiaiareitheiBeshio,iJema,iMuger,iGuder,iFinchaa,iAnger,iDidessaiandiDabusionitheileftibankianditheiChemoga,iTimochia,iBiriandiBelesionitheirightibank.iTheiBlueiNileientersiSudaniatianialtitudeiofi490im.a.m.s.liandijustibeforeicrossingitheifrontier,itheiriverientersiaiclayiplain,ithroughiwhichiitiflowsitoiKhartoum.iTheiaverageislopeiofitheiriverifromitheiEthiopianifrontieritoiKhartoumiisionlyi15icmikm-1.iWithiniSudan,itheiBlueiNileireceivesiwaterifromitwoimajoritributariesidrainingifromitheinorth,itheiDinderianditheiRahad,ibothiofiwhichialsoioriginateiiniEthiopia.iAtiKhartoumitheiBlueiNileijoinsitheiWhiteiNileitoiformitheimainistemiofitheiNileiRiver.

LiteratureiReview

DevelopedibyitheiStockholmiEnvironmentiInstitutei(SEI),itheiWEAPimodeliisiintendeditoibeiuseditoievaluateiplanningiandimanagementiissuesiassociatediwithiwateriresourceidevelopment.iTheiWEAPimodeliessentiallyiperformsiaimassibalanceiofiflowisequentiallyidowniairiverisystem,imakingiallowanceiforiabstractionsiandiinflows.iTheielementsithat

ApplicationiofitheiWateriEvaluationiandiPlanningi(WEAP)iModelitoiSimulateiCurrentiandiFutureiWateriDemandiinitheiBlueiNile

compriseitheiwateridemandsupplyisystemianditheirispatialirelationshipiareicharacterizediwithinitheimodel.iTheisystemiisirepresentediinitermsiofiitsivariousiwaterisourcesi(e.g.,isurfaceiwater,igroundwateriandiwaterireuseielements);iwithdrawal,itransmission,ireservoirs,iandiwastewateritreatmentifacilities,iandiwateridemandsi(i.e.iuser-definedisectors,ibutitypicallyicomprisingiindustry,imines,iirrigationiandidomesticisupply)i(SEI,i2007;iYatesietial.,i2005).

Typicallyitheimodeliisifirsticonfigureditoisimulateiaibaselineiyear,iforiwhichitheiwateriavailabilityiandidemandsicanibeiconfidentlyidetermined.iItiisitheniuseditoisimulateialternativeiscenariositoiassessitheiimpactiofidifferentidevelopmentiandimanagementioptions.iTheimodelioptimizesiwateriuseiinitheicatchmentiusingianiiterativeiLineariProgrammingialgorithm,itheiobjectiveiofiwhichiisitoimaximizeitheiwateridelivereditoidemandisites,iaccordingitoiaisetiofiuser-definedipriorities.iWheniwateriisilimited,itheialgorithmiisiformulateditoiprogressivelyirestrictiwateriallocationitoithoseidemandisitesigivenitheilowestipriority.

Inithisistudy,itheimodeliwasiset-upitoisimulateithreeiscenarios:ii)itheinaturalisituationiwithinoiabstractions,iii)itheicurrentisituationiandiiii)ifutureidemandiiniapproximatelyi2015.iTimeiseriesiofimonthlyinaturalizediflowidataiforitheiperiodi1960-1992,iobtainedifromitheiAbayiBasiniMasteriPlani(BCEOM,i1998),iwereiusediasiinputidata.iEstimatesioficurrentiirrigationiandihydropoweridemandiwereiderivedifromidataiprovidedibyigovernmentiministriesiandiagenciesiorifromipreviousistudies.iThisiincludediinformationioniwateripassingithroughitheiturbinesiofitheipoweristationsiandiwateridivertediforiirrigation.iItiwasinecessaryitoimakeiailotiofiassumptions,iparticularlyiaboutireturniflowsifromiirrigationischemes.iInisomeicasesidemandiestimatesiwereiderivedibasedionidemandiatisimilariirrigationischemes,iandisimplyiweightedibyitheiratioiofitheischemeiareas.iIrrigationidemandiwasialloweditoivaryislightlyidependingionirainfallideterminediforitheirainigaugeilocatediclosestitoitheischeme.iHence,iinihigherirainfalliyears,iirrigationidemandiwasireducedislightly.iNetievaporationifromiLakeiTanaianditheireservoirsiwasiestimatediusingidataifromitheinearestimeteorologicalistation.i

Forithei2015iscenario,itheisizeiofiplannedihydropoweriandiirrigationidevelopmentiwasiderivedifromitheibasinimasteriplansiforiSudaniandiEthiopia.iThisiincludedibothinewischemesiandiproposediextensioniofiexistingischemes.iIniSudaniitiisiplanneditoiraiseitheiheightiofitheiRoseiresidamibyi10m,itoiincreaseitheiareaiirrigatediatiseveralilocationsianditoiconstructiseveralinewiirrigationischemes.iItiisiestimatedithatitheitotaliirrigatediareaiwilliincreaseitoiapproximatelyi2,126,000iha.iIniEthiopiaiitiisiplanneditoitransferiwaterifromiLakeiTanaitoitheiBelesiRiveri(aitributaryiofitheiBlueiNile)iforihydropowerigeneration,itoiextenditheiFinchaaiirrigationischemeianditoidevelopiseveralinewiirrigationischemes,iinitheivicinityiofiLakeiTanaiasiwelliasiiniotherisub-basins.iItiisiestimatedithatitheitotaliformallyiirrigatediareaiwilliincreaseitoiapproximatelyi210,000iha.iIniaddition,iitiisiplanneditoiconstructiaiveryilargeidami(storageicapacityi40.2iBm3)ionitheimainistemiofitheiAbay,iatiKaradobi,iforihydropower.iAlthoughitheiexactidatesioficompletioniofimanyiofitheseischemesiisiunknown,itheseiareitheihighestipriorityischemesiinieachicountryiand,iforitheipurposesiofithisistudy,iitiwasiassumedithatitheyiwouldiallibeicompletedibyiapproximatelyi2015.

ConcludingiRemarks

TheiWEAPimodelihasibeeniconfigureditoisimulateitheiimpactsiofiwateriresourceidevelopmentiinitheiBlueiNileibasin.iCurrentlyiEthiopiaiutilizesiveryilittleiwateributidoesiregulateisomeiflowiforihydropoweriproduction.iInicontrastiSudaniusesisomeiwateriforihydropoweriproductionibutialsoiabstractsilargeivolumesiforiirrigation.iBothicountriesiplanitoidevelopiwateriresourceiinfrastructureisubstantiallyiinitheinearifuture.iByiapproximatelyi2015iitiisiestimatedithatitheitotaliannualiconsumptiveidemandiisilikelyitoibei17.12iBm3y-1i(i.e.i35%iofitheinaturaliflowiatiKhartoum).iOfithisi3.69iBm3y-1iwillibeiconsumediiniEthiopiaiandi13.43iBm3y-1iiniSudan.

Theiresultsiinithisipaperiareipreliminaryiandibasedionimanyiassumptions.iWhereiitihasibeenipossibleitoiverifyitheisimulationsitheimodeliresultsiareireasonable.iNevertheless,itheicurrentiresultsimustibeitreatediwithicaution.iInitheicomingimonths,itheimodeliwillibeirefinediusingiimprovediestimatesiofistreamflowionitheimajoritributariesiandibetteriestimatesiofiirrigation.

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Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model to Simulate Current and Future Water Demand in the Blue Nile. (2019, Dec 08). Retrieved from http://studymoose.com/water-evaluation-and-planning-weap-model-to-simulate-current-and-future-water-demand-in-the-blue-nile-essay

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