U.S. and China’s Future Essay
U.S. and China’s Future
America is a powerful country with a developed market economy and great economic potential. American foreign policy has a great influence on the whole world. The main goals of America on the international market are to create a democratic world for American people and all other people. The era of globalization presumes the developed network of contacts with other countries and America is very successful in this aspect. China is another influential country. Big population and quick economical growth have made this country an important figure on the world political stage.
Relationship between China and the United States have experienced major transformation during last fifty years. America’s foreign policy is greatly influenced by its economical and political interests. A serious test for America was The Great Depression. The Great Depression became the biggest economic fall during the history of the United States, which stared after the Stock Market Crash in 1929. Trade and personal income experienced a period of great decline during this time. Depression quickly became widespread to the most countries of the world.
Economic instability finally led to the development of anti-democratic regimes in many countries, such as Germany, Italy and the USSR. The government of the United States managed to overcome the Great Depression without turning to dictatorship. Starting from the 1933 Roosevelt insisted on the necessity of a restructuring of the economy in order to avoid another depression. New Deal programs, aiming to stimulate demand and create work places, have been created. In contrast to many counties, which could not find a way to solve economical problems, the United States of America escaped this danger.
This fact can explain the further successful American development on the world market. World War II has had a great impact on the position of most countries on the world’s map. After the experience of the World War I the United States of America took preventive measures when the World War II broke out. Hostility of Japan and threat of Nazi regimes to democracy made the United States of America take an active part in this war. Trying to keep neutral position the USA did not start war actions until the attack to Pearl Harbor.
America being an active participant insisted on the Unified Allied Military Command for all the aliens, except the USSR because the Soviet Union did not want to declare war on Japan at first. In 1944 together British and American army attacked the Germans on the occupied territory of France. At that time the Soviets were attacking Germans in Poland and Romania (Friedman, 63). The United States of America took part in the WWII helped to stop Nazism and helped to save democracy in the world.
It is necessary to note that the most powerful countries then were the United States and the USSR and so they were taking the most important strategic decisions. After the war the United Nations were created and America became one the five permanent members of the Security Council. The Cold War was another period in American foreign policy. This war was aimed to limit the USSR’s power all over the world and to find the balance. The US had established the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and got into close contact with China during that time.
America was spreading its influence in every corner of the world, while the Soviet Union, being weakened after the war, was losing its power and might. By the end of the Cold War America invaded Panama and made a number of campaigns in Central America. “In 1986 the US was convicted of multiple violations of international law and breaches of treaties against Nicaragua by the International Court of Justice in The Hague” (Bunton, 64). Relations between the U. S. and Asian countries were not stable after the World War II, because of the so-called “American dominance” in the world.
America was suspicious of Communist government of China making an assumption that China could invade all East Asia and so threaten America. China, in its turn, was afraid that America was going to weaken Chinese government. On the other hand, both countries saw the necessity in cooperation to escape the possible threats from both countries. Formally, America had not recognized China (Peoples’ republic of China) for almost 30 years and only after the war this conflict was resolved. After the Korean War, in which the United States and the PRC were enemies the relations between these two countries became frozen.
“The Soviet Union was more of a factor than the People’s Republic of China in instigating the 1950 North Korean invasion of South Korea. In response, the United Nations Security Council undertook to assist by military means the Republic of Korea” (Vogel, 167). All in all, this war has not had an official end but it has had a great impact on the relations between China and America. After it the relations became distanced, two countries had stopped any cooperation. America was even doing its best to prevent China from entering the United Nations.
It imposed an embargo on trade with China and encouraged other countries to stop their cooperation with China. In the middle of the last century the situation has changed. The United States wanted to spread its influence in Southeast Asia in order to have an access to Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia and the only way to do it was the improvement of relations with China. America also required the Chinese market of over one billion consumers. In the year 1969, America removed an embargo on trade with China and took a number of measures to develop a bilateral contact.
The negotiations lasted till the year 1972. In this year President Nixon visited Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou and, as a result, two countries signed to the Shanghai Communique. According to this agreement China and America stated that they shared their views on foreign policy. Its main aim was to normalize the relations between tow countries (Harding, 143). All in all, America did not get all the profit it supposed to get from this agreement, as the American products could enter the Chinese market only in a few decades and their economic cooperation was very slow.
To analyze the further perspectives of Sino-American relations, it is necessary to get some information about China’s economy. China presents a significant part of the world’s economy because of its geographical position, demographic factor and unique methods of economic development. The population of China makes 20. 7% of the world total, the territory of China is 3. 70 million square miles, GPD annual growth is 7. 05% on average. China being under transition and developing in a unique way can give good lessons for other young developing countries.
To analyze the position of this country in the rate of modern economy today it is necessary to get acquainted with the history of China’s development. The first period on the way of its development is so-called “Five-Year Plan; 1953-1957” when the emphasis was made on the development of heavy industry following the Soviet Union example. The second step was “Great Leap Forward; 1958-1960”. This period is characterized by raising of agricultural and industrial production following an own program, not the Soviet one.
In 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution took place and, as a result Mao’s theory of self-reliant economy and political struggle and its pursuit appeared. In 1978 started the process of economic reformation that continues till now. This process is aimed to reform the planned economy into the market-oriented one (Buxton 219). China’s reforms are often called “economic miracle”, as such progress and success is just unbelievable but the results are visible. Only in year 1978 60% of one billion population lived below poverty and China was concerned as one of the poorest countries in the world.
Beginning from the year 1978 China started its transition from a command economy to a market one and from the rural society to the urban one. China has chosen one of the fastest rates for economic and agriculture development and succeeded in it. The rapid economic growth is the result of combination of part reforms and constant experimentation. There were made reforms practically in all areas but agriculture was the most reformed area. Agriculture played a very important role in eradication of poverty.
“By international standards, China’s social indicators as reflected in close to universal access to primary education, low infant mortality and high life expectancy have been outliers, in view of China’s low initial per capita income” (Hsieh, 37). The first actions that were taken about agriculture were the privatization of farming, intensification of industry and liberalization of markets for many goods. The process of transition to urbanization took the US, for example, 47 years while China managed to double its income twice just in 10 years (1978-1996).
If to compare economic geographical factors of the USA and China from the first point of view they seem absolutely different but it is only first impression. In fact, both these countries occupy large territory, which is rich in numerous mineral resources. Nature is represented by lowlands, highlands, mountains and valleys and this fact contributes to excellent conditions of economic development. Geographical factor is one of the factors which can explain such rapid and such successful development of the both countries. It is quite another matter that countries have chosen absolutely different ways of the economic development.
According to the statistics of 1987 China was on the fifth place of long-run of Economic Growth while America was on the forth after Japan, Brazil, Canada and Germany (Mankiw, 237). Nowadays the situation has not changed very much and both countries sit tight on their positions and develop successfully. China was not in an enviable position after World War II. Due to American efforts it was isolated not only from America but also from a number of European countries. Sino-Soviet Split was the last straw and there were even military tensions on the Soviet borders.
It was necessary to improve relations with America because China’s security was in danger. The rapprochement with the United States was of great importance for China. Now China was in security during the Cold War and could extend its foreign policy. China was by American side in the Soviet war in Afghanistan and Cuban movements. China and the United States had little political interaction until the middle of the last century. They did not even have direct diplomatic contacts. Only after the 1960s the USA and China began active economical partnership. At the present moment they are major trading partners.
These relationships survived confrontation during Taiwan crisis and Tiananmen massacre of 1989. Economic relations are not the only point, which unites these two great nations. It is hard to underestimate the impact of China, as the most populous country of the world, especially after rapid economic development (Mann, 146). At the same time the United States of America is one of the most powerful counties of the world. Relationship between these two counties guarantees not only economical privileges for both of them, but also becomes important for maintaining peace in the world.
The United States wanted to use China as a counterweight to the USSR during the period of the Cold War. It was difficult to develop relations between such closed political, social and economical unit as China, but President Nixon put much effort to develop this relationship. Henry Kissinger, State Secretary of the USA also put much effort in building relationship with China. His mission to Beijing was aimed to build the basis for future fruitful relationships between two countries. Relationships between the U. S.
and China have become so useful for both countries that they continue them after the end of the Cold War. Economy is a strong basis for Sino-American relationships but conflicts between two values systems can become a serious problem in the future. All hopes of American government that Chinese authoritarian political system will gradually be transformed, like it has happened in other authoritarian countries, have gradually faded away. America, which serves a democratic ideal for the rest of the world, has to tolerate bad violations of human rights in China.
In the 1960s, when relationships between these two countries were only developing the American government had very strong determination that China would turn to Western value system and switch to democratic principles. “Stolidly eyeing the authoritarian reality behind all the fine words and sumptuous banquets that Beijing bestows on influential visitors, it is necessary to remember how sorry has been China’s record on human rights in recent decades — and how cravenly Washington has sought to sweep that record under the carpet” (Mann, 112).
China shows strong determination in its ruling regime and value system. Since situation is not likely to be resolved in the nearest future, it depends mostly on the United States: how long it will tolerate such state of events. Directed by economic profit, the United States during the long period closed eyes on the political aspect of the problem. If such a tendency continues, the U. S. will experience a threat to lose a status of the carrier of democratic ideals all over the world. Close relations with the one of the most authoritarian counties of the world will finally compromise the United States.
Governmental regime which exists in modern China is a mixture of communism and Nazism. Such a regime has nothing to do with western democratic ideals. In addition, China used such tricks as military and industrial espionage against the USA. The concept of human rights practiced in these two countries are completely different and even incompatible. Nowadays it becomes more and more evident that Sino-American relationships are based on completely different goals. During the long period of time the U. S. was expecting liberalization of the Chinese government and modernization of its policies.
As to China, it gladly accepted any kind of help in modernization but did not let interferer within inner policy of the country and rejected any attempts to liberalization. Since it becomes more and more evident that China is not going to change its governmental regime and economic structure, the United States has to choose if it is ready to prolong its relationship with this country or not. One of possible solutions would be a picky attitude, proclaimed by Harding. He proposes to develop “realistic and nuanced policy toward China,” and I agree with him.
(Harding, 214). It is quite evident the U. S. will not be able to break its relationships with one of its major trade partners. On the other hand, it also evident that China becomes a dominant power in Sino-American relationships and if the situation is not changed recently, it will gain more and more power and knowing about the authoritative nature of Chinese governmental power, it is hard to predict all possible bad consequences of such interaction. First of all it is necessary to get rid of romantic vision of China as a country with the “developing” democracy.
Rational attitude to China, as to “an independent counterpart in a complex balance of power» can help the United States to renew health balance in these relationships (Harding, 217). In this way in 10 years Sino-American relationship will depend on the role the U. S. chooses inside of these relationships. It is quite evident that such kind of relationship is satisfactory for China and not satisfactory for the United States. If the U. S. does not agree to stand its role in these relationships any more, it will have to build a thoughtful strategy aiming to make China accept not only economical interaction, but also political ideas.
If this happens, relations, despite they will be transformed, will stay in the form of close partnership in many fields. If this does not happen we can expect cold and estrangement in the relationships between these two countries. It is obvious that such close economical ties, which exist between China and the United States can not be broken in one day but they will be gradually reducing and this short down will be initiated by America. By that time China will have to make a difficult choice. It is evident that it needs American support and funding for the economical growth and development.
On the other hand China is very reluctant to seek any compromises when it comes to internal political changes. In the case this country does not decide to make any changes towards liberalization, we will most probably face the decline of Sino-American relationships. This crisis will be hard to overcome, so America has finally to get rid of its idealistic hope that China will turn to liberalization and democracy. It will count only on concrete facts and numbers and if China does not provide sufficient proves, crises will not be overcome. So, next ten years promise to be very important for Sino-American relationships.
After these ten years we can expect two results. Either China turns to liberalization and enters world of Western ideals of democracy as a peer, or it returns to its estrangement from the world culture, policy and economy. The impact of these two scenarios on the Sino-American relationships is evident. In the first case (if China turns to liberalization and democracy) these relationships will become even closer and bring profit to both countries. In the second case these relationships will gradually decline and even lead to serious conflicts.
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Harding, Harry. “A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972. ” Brookings Institution Press, 1992. Hsieh Chiao-min and Jean Kan Hsieh. China: A Provincial Atlas. New York: Macmillan Publishing, U. S. A. , 1995. Mankiw, N. Gregory, et. al. , Principles of Marcroeconomics. First Canadian Edition, Dryden, Harcourt Brace & Company, Canada, 2003. Mann, James. About Face: A History of America`s Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton. Vintage, 2000. Vogel, F. Ezra. Living With China: U. S. /China Relations in the Twenty-First Century. W. W. Norton & Company, 1997..
University/College: University of California
Type of paper: Thesis/Dissertation Chapter
Date: 20 February 2017
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