1. Explain how observed teleconnection patterns can help in the preparation of a seasonal weather forecast.
So the simple way of explaining a teleconnection is a warmer and cooler pacific can influence rainfall. “we saw how a vast warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of the equatorial tropical Pacific can affect the weather in different regions of the world” (Ahrens, 2015, p.271). These major storms as we learned in earlier chapters affect people in many regions of the world. A seasonal forecast is very important because it gives people a chance to prepare for what could possibly be. Forecasters can give a prediction of a wetter or drier season. They have said that this type of forecasting has been seen to be very keen in this field of work. If we can predict weather patterns for the upcoming months will only prevail for regions abroad. This will only prepare us for the worst and hope for the best. 2. If the temperature is dropping and the dew point is holding steady, what is your forecast for the relative humidity? Explain your answer.
Let’s first understand what a dew point is. The dew point is basically the temperature at which the if it cool’s to a certain temp you will get hundred percent relative humidity. If the dew point drops low enough the cold air won’t be capable of holding the moisture. If the temperature is dropping and you have a stable dew point I would predict a higher amount of relative humidity. The lower the dew point dropped is when you decrease in relative humidity. If you had a hot summer day and a steady dew point; you would actually had a lower relative humidity. 3. In what ways are severe thunderstorms different from ordinary cell thunderstorms? What are some of the meteorological or atmospheric conditions that favor the development of severe thunderstorms?
The basics of a thunder storm are fairly easy, because they consist of thunder, lightning, winds, rain and heavy hail at times. “The storm itself may be a single cumulonimbus cloud, or several thunderstorms may form into a cluster” (Ahrens, 2015, p.288). Thunderstorms form in unstable environments with warm air. They are known as convective storms. Cell thunderstorms form in regions where limited vertical wind shear is present. The winds direction or speeds do not abruptly change rapidly. Ordinary storms develop and mature through a cycle, as cell thunderstorms don’t have this development. Different conditions vary from warm air rising, random turbulent eddies and terrain. These are a few that can be a trigger to these more impactful storms.
4. Where do thunderstorms form most frequently in the US? Why is this the case? Is this also where most tornadoes occur? Explain.
The most area that gets thunderstorms more frequently is the Gulf Coast. This area includes all of Florida, to include parts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. “We also find that, in summer along the Gulf Coast, a thick layer of warm, moist air extends upward from the surface” (Ahrens, 2015, p.303). This also makes a point that more storms consuming Hail are located in the Great Plains. Thunderstorms typically form more in the tropical latitude, which makes the gulf coast a prime location.
The two areas that tornados occur most is the Tornado Alley and the Dixie Alley. Tornado Alley stretches from Central Texas to Nebraska, as Dixie Alley over Mississippi to Alabama. “The Central Plains region is most susceptible to tornadoes because it often provides the proper atmospheric setting for the development of the severe thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes” (Ahrens, 2015, p.313). This area gets that humid dry air with a cold layer to follow which creates the perfect formula for a unstable environment. This makes Spring a high frequency for tornados and winter the low time for them to occur.
5. The region of greatest tornado activity shifts northward from early spring to summer. Why does this occur?
This is really interesting because the peak for tornados is actually around June 12th. This makes early spring a probability between 25-60 percent. When you hit June the probability jumps through the roof to 90 percent. The biggest possibility for the shift is “El Nino”, but there is not an actual confirmation on why this shift happens. The next possibility is the warming weather moving north is shifting the peak period by 7-10 days. This making Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley more susceptible to tornados during that peak time.