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Super Crunchers

Paper type: Essay
Pages: 2 (490 words)
Categories: Alcohol, Experience, Experiences, Food, Food, Food And Culture
Downloads: 23
Views: 187

* What actually got him in problem is crunching numbers to examine the quality of Bordeaux white wines. He found that low levels of harvest rain/high avg. summer season temperatures produce the best white wines Decreased his white wine theory to a formula; he can anticipate the basic quality of any vintage by plugging weather data for a given year into formula.

NOT well received by traditional red wine critics BUT, unlike the traditional critics who need to wait months to taste the white wines, Orley might compute his predictions immediately (he released them in a newsletter called Liquid Possessions) 1990 New York City Times Post on his forecast device significantly heightened traditional critic’s displeasure towards Orley-not just did his ’86 prediction oppose the critic’s (Parker), but he forecasted ’89’s wine to be “wine of the century”.

990’s red wine was forecasted to be even much better than ’89-both predictions proved precise Critics argued his system was flawed- it produced inexact future cost predictions (either under/over real); signaled his unbiased price quote (unlike Parker) Numerous standard specialists now too think about weather data, leading to forecasts much more closely lined up w/ Orleys; still, others see him as a hazard to their informational monopoly of the world of white wine * The Orley Ashenfelter of Baseball What Orley provided for white wine, author Expense James provided for baseball

James’ thesis: data-based analysis in baseball transcended to obvervational competence …” the difference b/w a great & & avg.

hitter is not visible-it’s a matter of record” Created a formula to measure a hitter’s contribution to runs created; it put more emphasis on a player’s on base % The Oakland A’s 2002 drafting of scout-hated Jeremy Brown was based solely on hard numbers; Brown progressed faster than anyone else drafted to the A’s that year, proving the scouts wrong

* Parallels b/w Orley/James n both contexts, ppl are trying to predict the MV of untested/immature products; the central dispute of both is whether to rely on observational expertise or quantitative data Both placed ads for their respective newsletters; Orley was locked out of Wine Spectator and James received the cold shoulder from the Elias Sports Bureau Both have forever left their marks upon their industries and given rise to number crunching groups-SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) & the Association of Wine Economics In Vino Veritas

Historically significant: experiential expertise is losing out time and time again to number crunching Hedge funds brought about a new breed of number crunchers-Super Crunchers: they use statistical analysis to make predictions (a combo of size, speed, & scale-all of which are huge) that impact real-world decisions; they look for a better way to do things Traditional experts in all fields are at war w/ super crunchers Number crunchers are changing both the decision making process and decisions themselves; sometimes crunching confirms traditional wisdom The super crunching revolution can be both helpful and hurtful to consumers

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Super Crunchers. (2016, Dec 31). Retrieved from https://studymoose.com/super-crunchers-chapter-summaries-essay

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