The topic on the possibility of United States launching a military attack against Iran has dominated much news for several years since the Bush administration and during which some quarters speculated that such an attack would be ordered before the administration left office. As early as 2005, a number of articles had started revealing the imminent plans by Pentagon to order military operations against Iran. While people and the media may speculate and give their opinions about many aspects of the imminent war, the most important issue to understand is the reasons which may spark the attack.
It is therefore the objective of this paper to discuss the reasons why US would engage in a military land war with Iran. 2. 0 The Euro-Based Oil Bourse This is one of the major reasons which revolve around the plan by Tehran government in 2005 and 2006 to start competing with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the largest physical commodity futures exchange in the world based in New York and the London based International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) by using the euro-dominated oil trading mechanism (Clark, 2004).
The logic behind this is that by using this mechanism in international oil trades, the euro is going to take dominance and establish a firm ground which will serve to overshadow the strength of the U. S dollar in the global oil market. The U. S government therefore considers this a real threat by Tehran government which warrants intervention to protect the dollar from being toppled off from its long term monopoly in the critical international oil market.
It is worth noting that lack of an oil pricing standard that is euro-dominated also referred to oil “marker” in the oil trading industry is one of the technical challenges facing the euro-based trading system in oil transactions. The oil markers currently in operation today are the U. S dollar dominated which include Norway Brent crude, West Texas Intermediate crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. In the spring of 2003, Iran laid down a requirement that all the transactions for its Asian and European oil exports be conducted using the euro currency though the pricing of oil was still predominantly controlled by the dollar.
Following an official announcement in 2004 that Iran had intentions to develop an Iranian oil Bourse, it raised the concerns that a stiff competition would ensue between the Iranian oil bourse and the U. S owned NYME and the IPE (Clark, 2004). The macroeconomic implications of such a development would cause a shift in the international commerce in both Middle East and the European Union which is the largest importer of oil from OPEC producers.
Consequently, the financial hegemony enjoyed by the IPE and NYMEX would be greatly challenged and thus the U. S is likely to avoid this through military action. 3. 0 The Ambitious Nuclear Program of Iran The Tehran’s nuclear ambition is another possible reason as to why the U. S may launch a land military attack on Iran. This has been seen from the latest series of sanctions on Iran by the Obama administration which mainly targets the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is the most powerful social, political and economic institution in Iran.
The organization also has a large number of companies and banks and therefore makes it an appropriate target for these sanctions (LANDLER & COOPER, 2010). However, the critical thing to focus on with regard to this issue is whether these sanctions have the capacity to compel Iran to halt its nuclear program. If the history of political and economic sanctions against countries is anything to go by, then Iran may not change its course despite the sanctions and this may lead to war.
The reason for the sanctions is to “contain” Tehran which depicts a link which leads from diplomatic pressure to military action (Nadal, 2010). Tehran views this threat as real considering that its two neighbors to the west and to the east have a large number of U. S troops. 4. 0 Conclusion A possible military action on Iran by the US cannot be overlooked since the reasons surrounding this possibility would also have major effects on the economy and the security of the US.
Considering the economic problems facing the US, the attempts by Iran to establish the euro-based oil bourse may seem as an attempt to suppress the dollar in the international oil market. The nuclear program also would threaten the security not only of the US but also of the world if it is not either regulated or completely halted. To aver the nuclear weapons development, Washington ought to try and alter the perceptions of threat harbored by Iran against America.
Clark, W. (2004). The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker. Retrieved August 20, 2010, from http://www. globalresearch. ca/articles/CLA410A. html LANDLER, M. , & COOPER, H. (2010). U. S. Eyes New Sanctions Over Iran Nuclear Program. Retrieved August 20, 2010, from http://www. nytimes. com/2010/02/10/world/middleeast/10sanctions. html? _r=1 Nadal, A. (2010). Sanctions against Iran and the Next War. Retrieved August 20, 2010, from http://www. campaigniran. org/casmii/index. php? q=node/10518