Seven Primary Geopolitical Factors Within Yemen

PART I - Introduction

Yemen provides a unique set of geopolitical factors that must be taken into account when determining how to encourage a peaceful future in a historically turbulent social and political environment. This essay will address seven primary geopolitical factors within Yemen in the context of its social, cultural, economic, and political climate, political stability and longevity, access to strategic resources, proximity to allies and enemies, international partnerships, import and export routes, and access to critical supplies, energy, and technology.

By studying these factors, this paper will determine the viability of third-party intervention under the PMESII-PT framework utilized by the Department of Defense. Critical areas of analysis under this framework include political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time. Through the PMESII-PT framework, it will be shown that Yemen is a country largely controlled by conflict within its own borders, and without increased humanitarian assistance and shuttle diplomacy efforts from third-party nations, Yemen will remain a country in economic, military, political, cultural, and social turmoil, subjecting it to be a war-torn country for years to come and creating an ongoing humanitarian crisis.

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UN involvement and third-party mediation are needed in Yemen to bring an end to the civil war crisis so that the country can begin rebuilding its government and infrastructure.

PART II - Data & Analysis

Analytical Framework

The analytical framework utilized in this paper is the Department of Defense's PMESII-PT framework. This framework, a "comprehensive effects-based planning, requires that diplomatic, information, and economic (DIME) options be considered, along with their potential impacts on the political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information (PMESII) environment.

" The following sections will provide data and analysis to provide insight on Yemen's need for further outside assistance to rebuild its infrastructure and negotiate peace in the region.

Political Variable

Yemen's politics are tumultuous and unstable due to several years of civil war between the Houthis and Yemeni government. The country does not adhere to any cooperative organizations or international law, and its government is in a transitional period. Yemen's Prime Minister as of October 15, 2018 is Maeen Abd al-Malik SAEED. The Chief of State is President Abd Rabuh Mansur HADI, and the Vice President is ALI MAHSIN al-Ahmar. The country is divided into 22 governorates, and 21 of these 22 governorates have been affected by civil war clashes. Along with the Houthi rebels, Yemen deals with various terrorist groups within its own borders, causing increased instability and social turmoil. The country's proximity to enemies is constant, unable to escape threats from within.

The lack of effective infrastructure affects the country's ability to conduct fair local elections. The political structure is still in the transitional stage, and the amount of power that each governorate will have within the system is not currently determined. Under the current Yemeni constitution, Sharia Law is the overarching source of legislation, but the country is so fractured that each governorate tends to adhere to a different set of standards and rules. Yemen citizens are prohibited from forming political parties based on region, tribe, sect, or ethnicity according to law.

Military Variable

Yemen's military organization is limited and lacks the infrastructure to conduct successful operations. There was a significant decline in the conventional Yemeni Army, Air Force, and Navy's power after Yemen's unification in 1990, and formal military development or education is nonexistent. Yemen compensates for its lack of conventional military power through its paramilitary, organized by the Ministry of the Interior. More so than the threat of outside forces in the region, Yemen's primary threats come from internal sources.

In 2015, the Yemen government called upon Saudi Arabia to intervene on their behalf and to help deter the Houthi rebels from further destroying their government. This plea led to a Saudi naval blockade of the Yemen coast that deterred the Houthis from building up their armaments but also exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the country, making it even more difficult for humanitarian aid to enter. The intervention from Gulf state allies, led by Saudi Arabia, also engaged in "airpower coercion" and held a peace-talk in Kuwait in 2016 that resulted in a temporary stalemate and decreased territorial conflict. However, this peace-talk did not result in a permanent resolution of the conflict. In December 2018, the Houthis and the Yemen government engaged in peace talks through UN intervention; however, there are still violent clashes occurring, particularly in Marib, AL-Jawf, and Taiz.

Economic Variable

Yemen is low-income, with most Yemenis making under two U.S. dollars a day. Due to the civil war that has been going on since 2015, the exports and imports Yemen usually partakes in have stopped, contributing to the lack of food and fuel in the country. Prior to the intrastate conflict, Yemen held export partnerships with Egypt, Thailand, Belarus, Oman, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. They held import partnerships with United Arab Emirates, China, Turkey, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and India. These partnerships are no longer functional.

Yemen does have access to various trade routes. It borders the Arabian sea to the south and has access to the Gulf of Aden as well as the Red Sea; although, these trade routes are now closed off, as Yemen decided to close its territorial waters. Bab el Mandeb is the straight between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, and this would provide Yemen with access to a highly active shipping lane for imports and exports. It is also located between Oman and Saudi Arabia.

Yemen's infrastructure and ability to harvest natural resources has diminished due to the lack of manpower available and the ongoing violent conflict on the ground. The Yemeni Central Bank is nearly depleted and is unable to keep up with the currency exchange rates. The country is no longer able to receive imports of food, animals, machinery, equipment, and chemicals as they used to, and they are unable to export materials such as crude oil, coffee, dried and salted fish, and liquified natural gas. Furthermore, the Gulf of Aden holds many risks for Yemeni trade routes, as pirates have been known to hijack ships for ransom.

Social Variable

Arabic is the primary spoken language in Yemen among its approximately 28,667,230 population. Most Yemenis live in the Western region of Yemen in the Asir Mountains where the extreme heat is lesser. The birth rate is high, and the population growth in Yemen is 2.17%, with 99.1% of the population being Muslim. Yemen has a mixture of Sunni and Shia Muslims but is majority Sunni and is made up of a younger generation, with 39.16% of Yemenis being younger than 15 years old.

Information Variable

As of 2016, the use of cell phones in Yemen was increasing. However, Yemen's information dissemination is limited to few sources of output. The radio is limited to two national stations and five local stations, and there are only two channels accessible via television. In 2013, prior to the clash between Houthis and the Yemeni government, there were 13.3 million Yemenis without electricity, and while it is difficult to obtain an accurate number in a time of such ongoing conflict, this number is likely to have risen in recent years.

Infrastructure Variable

Yemen's public health is in constant decline. The medical care provided to the general public is lacking, as the infrastructure is not capable of financially providing for so many people. The continuing civil war is causing the minimal health workers left in the country to either flee out of country or risk their lives to stay. In 2017, one million people in Yemen had cholera, the worst in world history. Many died due to the lack of functioning hospitals. There is also a rise of diptheria.

Access to fresh, drinkable water is limited, and personal hygiene leads to the spread of diseases such as malaria and gastroenteritis. Furthermore, the housing crisis is a significant problem for Yemenis. There is low access to essential commodities such as quality homes, sewage systems, and electricity. Along with the high birth rate comes a lack of education, primarily for females. Only 55 percent of Yemeni females are considered literate. Humanitarian aid has been attempted; however, the food, medicine, and health workers sent over to assist the starving and dying Yemeni population are vulnerable to violent attacks, making providing humanitarian aid a dangerous and risky venture.

Physical Environment Variable

Yemen's terrain is primarily desert; although, there are mountainous areas in Western Yemen. In Eastern Yemen, the climate is hot and harsh, and along the western coastline, it is humid with monsoons occurring seasonally. Yemen is dominated mostly by desert in the interior and has various natural resources such as "petroleum, fish, rock salt, marble, small deposits of coal, gold, lead, nickel, copper, and fertile soil in the west." Dust storms and sandstorms are hazards of the summertime months, particularly in the interior of Yemen where the terrain is primarily desert. Soil erosion, desertification, and overgrazing have become environmental problems in the country, contributing to the lack of infrastructure.

Time Variable

As time passes, Yemen's infrastructure further collapses and the health of its citizens declines.

Indeed, this war and siege have had a devastating impact on child and maternal health. The decreasing vaccination rates among children reflect how basic public health activities have been impeded, while the increasing diarrheal disease incidence among children, and worsening nutrition status among mothers and children reflect the effect of war on the infrastructure as well as food availability and access.

Terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda take advantage of the instability and have control of several governorates such as Abyan and Al-Baidha. The power vacuum created by the lack of a central government allows for such terrorist entities to secure footholds in the region. Furthermore, as the war continues and time passes, new disease outbreaks occur such as the cholera outbreak in 2017.

PART III - Conclusion

With each day that passes, more Yemenis, including children, are dying of preventable diseases, famine, or war. With the conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government entering its fourth year, and with no foreseeable implementation of a stable government, the humanitarian crisis will only worsen. The Yemeni economy is too weak to sustain itself, and the country's lack of information distribution and infrastructure is devastating the people. Access to critical commodities is cut off, and assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf state allies has failed to adequately resolve the conflict. Without outside intervention and shuttle diplomacy from a cooperative international organization such as the UN, Yemen is likely to remain in conflict for years to come.