Somali Geopolitics At A Glance

Relationship of Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States

The FGS and the FMS(s) have enjoyed a relatively unstable and fluctuating relationship for more than a year now.

Member states like Jubaland, Puntland and Galmudug (partially) are not in good terms with the FGS.

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The disagreements revolve around key national issues including resource sharing, the model of governance (many Somalis still feel federalism is not viable for Somalia) and struggle for power among others.

Earlier on, the National Leadership Forum (NLF) and the National Security Council (NSC) were disbanded by the federal government.

Both platforms operated like a multi-stakeholder secretariat that dealt with key national issues and resolved contentious issues through inclusive political settlement and consensus.

On the other hand, the Council of the Interstate Cooperation (CIC) which was more of a political outfit that seeks to challenge the FGS is no longer functioning after most of the founding members of the cooperation have either lost their reelection bid or mended relations with the FGS.

The poor relations between the FGS and FMS have also stagnated many potential peacebuilding and governance developments due to poor or nil working relationships.

Regional Elections

Jubaland

Jubaland state held regional elections (parliament and president) in August amid a lot of controversies. Ahmed Madobe got reelected although his rival camp boycotted the election process citing lack of level playing ground and transparency.

2 other candidates (Abdirashid Hidig and Abdinasir Serar) have also claimed to have been elected as president of the Jubaland state in a parallel election.

The FGS in a number of subsequent statements that they have issued maintain their stand that all the elections in Jubaland were sham and that they would roll out guidelines for a new election. Apparently, the Jubaland administration claim that it's their mandate to hold elections.

The recent inauguration ceremony to mark the reelection of Madobe which was graced by a considerable number of the political players in the country added salt to the injury and widened the rift between the FGS and Jubaland. The FGS didn't attend and this paints a picture of the political disagreement in the country.

Galmudug

The FGS have appointed a reconciliation committee that were able to lay down some good foundations for the election and other related activities. The caucus of elders were inducted on crucial peace building principles and how they could play their role in the forthcoming elections

A 13-member Election commission was recently appointed by the ministry of Internal Affairs and Federalism. Ahlu Suna Wal Jama (Sufi) group who are one of the stakeholders in the Galmudug politics have claimed that they were consulted before the appointments were made as stipulated in an earlier agreement between them and the FGS.

Some of the presidential candidates have also cited concerns on the neutrality of the commission members and their partisanship.

The dates of the Galmudug elections are not yet official. The selection of the MPs is also long overdue.

Forum for National Parties

Somali Elections; 2020/21

Some of the most contested and relatively issues in Somalia as of now is the upcoming elections. Somalia has absolutely taken strides though slow in terms of democratization and election.

There is a strong call that the upcoming elections are held in a free and fair manner. Elections as a process calls for fundamental thresholds to be met. There should be an inclusive political settlement, election & political parties' laws must be drafted and passed into law, voters must be registered and reliable security must be put in place.

Most of those thresholds seems not to have been met although there are developments in some aspects and ongoing efforts as well.

Despite the government's insistence that there will be no term extensions and elections will be held on time but the opposition are displaying a high sense of contempt and lack of confidence. Many of them believe that the government is not serious and is looking into any chances of extending its term.

This is a periodic overview and a summary of key geopolitical issues of Somalia. Keep tuned as most of these issues are developing.