October 2010 Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area Lodi Road New Delhi – 110003 India Tel: + 91 11 24629994-7 Fax: + 91 11 24626149 Contact: Amita Sarkar, Senior Director (amita. [email protected] in) Jaya Gupta, Deputy Director (jaya. [email protected] in) A. T. Kearney Limited 1st Floor, Future Capital House Peninsula Corporate Park Ganpatrao Kadam Marg Lower Parel (W) Mumbai 400 013. India Tel:+91-22 – 4097 0700 Fax:+91-22 – 4097 0725 Contact: Neelesh Hundekari, Principal (neelesh. [email protected]);
Hemant Kalbag, Vice-President (hemant. [email protected] com); Pameela Pattabiraman, Manager (pameela. [email protected] com) Subhendu Roy, Manager (subhendu. [email protected] com) This report has been jointly produced by Confederation of Indian Industry and A. T. Kearney Limited, the contents of which are meant only for information purpose of the reader. Readers are advised to conduct their own investigation and analysis of any information contained in this report, and not rely on the information contained in this report for any purpose.
Neither Confederation of Indian Industry, nor A. T. Kearney make any representation regarding the accuracy or completeness of such information and expressly disclaim any or all liabilities based on such information or any omission thereof. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Confederation of Indian Industry and A. T. Kearney Limited. Copyright: CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRY. 2010, and A. T. KEARNEY, INC. 2010 iv FOREWORD The Luxury industry in India is no longer a new comer.
Like many other industries in India, it is of great interest to both international and Indian players. International brands see India as an emerging luxury market which could become a significant part of their portfolio tomorrow. Indian companies also see the growth at the top end of the market as an opportunity to introduce premium offerings. This enthusiasm was reflected in the first moves of several iconic international brands in the last 5-7 years. Indian companies have also seen the opportunity and a handful of players are now very active in the space.
Apart from luxury products such as watches, apparel, accessories, large Indian five star hotel chains, fine dining and spas, apart from luxurious houses, the latest luxury cars and yachts have expanded the definition of luxury. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and A. T. Kearney have been active players in the luxury space. CII through its National Committee on Retail has played an active role in trying to create an industry forum for players in the luxury industry. CII brought the industry together to help organize the industry and create a forum for dealing with issues of common interest.
A. T. Kearney, apart from serving clients in the luxury industry has also contributed to providing a robust fact base and perspectives on realizing the potential of the industry through their first study in 2007 (The Economic Times – A. T. Kearney India Luxury Review 2007). Just when the industry was showing signs of coming of age in 2007, from the third quarter of 2008, the global recession dampened the hopes of the industry. The industry suffered internationally, and that acted as a brake on the emotional euphoria for a good 9-12months in India as well.
Several players used that time to consolidate their position, right size their business, restructure real estate deals and become fitter. A few others suffered. Now with positive signs in the Indian economy, optimism about the industry is on the rise, as demonstrated by heightened market activity and consumer spending. However, key issues such as a relatively new market, duties, access to quality real estate etc continue to pose a challenge to exponential profitable growth. A few key questions keep bothering CEOs in the sector: How to make the luxury business a successful proposition in India?
How big is the market really? When will the market be fully ripe? What operating models work and do they need to be customized for India? Given this backdrop, CII and A. T. Kearney decided to team up and take stock of the industry and address key questions that current players, potential entrants and other stakeholders have about the industry. Our desire was to study and understand the major changes in the industry in the last 3-4 years and the implications of these for the future of the industry.. With this end in mind, over the last three months, we conducted an exhaustive and comprehensive research of the industry.
The A. T. Kearney team collated and analysed large amounts of data, interviewed several industry leaders and luxury consumers to develop all round insights on the industry. The report establishes the growth trajectory for the industry over the last three years, takes stock of the opportunities and the potential as well as the continuing challenges that it faces and estimates the likely potential over the next 5 years and recommends actions for industry players to undertake.
We believe that this report will serve as an important step in the industry’s v journey of growth. It clearly confirms that the hope in the potential of the Indian luxury industry is not misplaced, that there is still a huge latent demand in the market and that India will be an important market and player on the global luxury platform. While the hope in the potential remains undaunted even after the recession, infrastructural and regulatory issues continue to impede the development. Like in all other sectors, though we are confident that the Indian industry will discover a uniquely Indian way of converting them into opportunities.
We are grateful to all the industry leaders and consumers who spent time with us in sharing their perspectives and validating our hypotheses. We hope this study will act as a milestone in the evolution of the Indian luxury industry and will take the collective understanding of the industry a few steps forward. Confederation of Indian Industry A. T. Kearney vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last two decades, post liberalization in the 90s, the new maharajahs of business have created some serious wealth in India.
This new found prosperity has attracted luxury brands that were looking for new engines for growth to make up for slow growth in their traditional markets. While most industries are now coasting along smoothly, the small and emerging luxury industry players have not stopped reflecting on the past to ask some fundamental questions about the market. This report attempts to answer these questions through a wide and deep coverage of all segments of the luxury market in India. To get the most credible answers, we adopted a robust methodology with a large element of primary interviews and extensive data collection.
We collated data from a variety of sources to size the market and understand the growth rates over the last few years. Indian Luxury Consumer passport to the elite segment of the society and conspicuous consumption is their way of announcing it to the society. The children are the bigger spenders, having been educated abroad and hence familiar with brands and the luxury way of living. Traditionally wealthy families/large industrialists: This group comprises two sub-segments – the first is the traditionally wealthy families – who have been consuming luxury for several decades and go for the finer things in life.
The other sub segment comprises the promoters of some very large businesses which have come up in the last two decades and have created a disproportionate amount of wealth very quickly. Corporate executives: Senior executives of corporate India who are paid in excess of INR 1 crore (USD 225,000) and bankers who earn big bonuses epitomize this category. These executives are well traveled and are aware of brands. Most of this segment consists of people who are in their mid-late forties and represent some of the brightest minds in the country.
Many of them though have come from middle class backgrounds and hence have a conservative approach on conspicuous spending. Other segments include self employed professionals, young professionals, expatriates, politicians and bureaucrats. A correlation between the size of the luxury market, the GDP/capita, number of HNIs and HNI wealth over the years 2004-2009 shows that in terms of importance the number of high net worth individuals is the most important driver. Interviews with leading luxury brands in India point to the fact that family wealth is a stronger determinant of spending than household income.
The masstige phenomenon can also be observed very clearly in India. Luxury products in India are appealing to, and purchased by, middle-class consumers that do not fit the typical profile of an elite consumer segment. While Indian consumers talk about exclusivity, uniqueness and appeal to personal taste, the majority of the market is still far away from this and brand/logo/badge value drive luxury purchases very clearly. That said, traditional attributes such as high quality, heritage, longevity, the “stories” associated with brands are beginning to emerge as drivers of purchase.
The mindset is still that of an “aspirer” not that of a “connoisseur”. The Indian luxury consumer is young – 30-45 years old. While the average Indian luxury customer values High Quality, Exclusivity and Social Appeal as key drivers of luxury purchase, they are also very Price Conscious and often straddled with a “middle-class mindset”. The segments are composed primarily of: Medium size enterprise owners: This is the largest segment in terms of number – these are typically the medium enterprise owners – industrialists and traders who run businesses with revenues upwards of 50 cr. Their wealth is their vii
The distribution of the rupee millionaires is a good indicator of the luxury consumer distribution in the country. While Delhi and Mumbai continue to be the mainstay markets for luxury consumption, there are several other cities with a large base of potential luxury consumers. We believe in the next 57 years, at least 5-7 new towns will get added on the luxury map of India. We also believe that the potential in Delhi and Mumbai has not been fully exploited and that there exists a few more micro markets within these cities that need to be tapped. Luxury Market 2007-2009 watches and jewellery as well wines, spirits and high-end electronics.
This market has been estimated to be USD 1. 5 billion in 2009. Most luxury product categories have witnessed over 15% growth over the past 2 years – performance of categories like Electronics, Wines and Spirits, Apparel and Jewellery has been exceptionally strong. The Indian luxury services market was severely hit by the recession over the past 2 years. Nonetheless, the India Luxury Services industry is considered to be one of the best in the world. Consumer interviews revealed that consumers prefer Indian hotel chains like the Taj, Oberoi or ITC even when International chains like the Hyatt, Hilton or Four Seasons have entered the country.
The current Indian luxury assets market is estimated at USD 2. 45 billion. The growth of the Luxury Assets market is driven mainly by the phenomenal growth of the Real Estate and Automobile sectors. Latent Demand and Future Potential Our endeavor in this study has been to provide robust data on the size and growth of the Indian luxury market for stakeholders to consider, debate and if it makes sense to base their decisions upon. For sizing the market, Product, Price and (where possible brand also) filters are applied to isolate the luxury from the non-luxury in all segments.
We err on the side of conservatism i. e.only pure luxury is included. Based on a category wise build-up, the size of the Indian luxury industry in 2009 is estimated at USD 4. 76 billion (at retail prices). This includes all luxury products, luxury services and luxury assets sold in India. The total luxury market has grown at a CAGR of 13% between 2007-09, with luxury products growing at 22%, services degrowing at 5% and assets growing at 18%. Luxury market in India The Indian luxury market is still very small compared to global standards. While India has one of the highest GDPs in the world, its luxury consumption, in absolute terms, is still very small.
We believe that there exists a large latent demand in India, constrained by both demand side and supply side factors. On the demand side, there are several potential consumers in India who either do not buy luxury at all or do not buy enough of it from the local market. As we had mentioned, Rupee millionaires with incomes between INR 10-30 lakhs do not really spend on luxury. On the other side, supply of most luxury products in India is present is mostly present Mumbai, Delhi or Bangalore. However, wealth creation in the country is now no longer limited to these cities.
It is taking place at a rapid rate in Tier I and Tier II cities like Ahmedabad, Pune and Hyderabad. The current market size for luxury products in the country is around USD 1. 5 billion. A regression based on India’s GDP per capita and Number of HNIs, indicates that the size of the Indian luxury products market should have been around USD 3-3. 5 billion. This implies that there is a latent demand of almost USD 1. 5-2 billion. As percentage of the current market size, India’s latent demand is estimated at 120-150% while for China it is estimated at only 10-15%.
We have estimated the expected growth in the luxury goods market using a number of methods. Regression of the mar- Source: A. T. Kearney research and analysis The most visible segment of the luxury industry is the luxury products segment. This includes the most visible fashion luxury segments such as apparel, accessories, personal care, viii Country comparison based on GDP and # of HNIs 1. 2. 3. Source: Altagamma, A. T. Kearney research and analysis, Merrill Lynch Capgemini world wealth reports ket size for luxury products against the number of HNIs results in a growth estimate of 18%.
Based on numerous interviews with luxury company CEOs, executives and industry experts as well as secondary research, a bottom-up build up of category wise growth rates leads to an average of 21%. Given this and considering the huge latent demand, we believe that India’s overall Luxury Market will grow 21% to become almost 3 times its current size by 2015. Projected growth of luxury market in India 4. Difficulty in reaching the target consumer: The scattered nature of the target population and absence of critical mass in India is a big concern for the industry.
While luxury magazines have increased in maturity and volumes, they still reach only a small fraction of the existing consumers and a much smaller fraction of new consumers. Cost of reach is high, results uncertain and word of mouth continues to be best method to create a “buzz”. Consumer reservations about luxury purchases: India is faced with a low luxury penetration, with most of the rupee millionaires with income between INR 1030 lakh segment having the capacity but not the propensity to spend on luxury goods and services.
Furthermore, there are reservations against buying lesser known brands as well as shopping in India. Infrastructure and regulatory constraints: Companies have to struggle with lack of credible real estate options, underdeveloped back end infrastructure like warehouses and logistics as well as regulatory restrictions on FDI and high import duties. Lack of talent: Absence of skilled manpower has hindered luxury players from being able to provide the same customer service experience as that in international locations. However, there are several ideas that could be used to address these challenges.
To convert potential customers, who have the financial wherewithal, to luxury consumers, players should look at micro-segmentation of the population to identify specific “high potential” professions. Once identified, focused communication would be needed to reach out to them and convince them of the offering. Players also need to look at effective media vehicles to reach their target consumers. Consumer perceptions and reservations about shopping for luxury goods in India can be addressed by breaking the myth, getting high recall brands and bringing in “ladder brands”.
To address the infrastructure and regulatory challenges, players can use smaller retail formats to increase store densities far above the global benchmarks in order to drive higher sales productivity. A multi-brand environment would also help players attract a critical mass of consumers and also lower the burden on each brand in terms of operating costs. Other options include mini high streets, collaborative efforts with competition for both retail and supply chain and airport retailing. Indian companies can capitalize on the regulatory.
Source: A. T. Kearney research and analysis Luxury Industry Challenges Fundamentally there are four key challenges that any luxury player faces in India. ix restrictions imposed by the Indian government to enhance their presence in the market. The resource crunch needs to be addressed through the creation of a parallel education ecosystem – similar to what has happened in the IT, ITES, airlines and fashion industry. Critical Success Factors There is no instant formula for success in the Indian luxury market.
Everything about our country is different – the consumer, the challenges and also opportunities for luxury players. The Indian consumer is in a state of flux – evolving rapidly, but perhaps along a path that is inherently different from that taken by other developing economies. Several luxury players have managed to seize opportunities in the market early. We believe that the critical factors for success in this market include exploring formats that enable players to attract footfalls; getting the pricing right to encourage Indians to purchase locally;
Providing a world class experience e.g. ambience and service; bringing in iconic brands as Indians still buy luxury products for brand value and not to make a fashion statement; getting the cost structure right by ensuring the cost base is justified by the sales realized; getting access to local expertise to get the best real estate deals; experimenting with new formats such as a luxury discounter (liquidation channel) that can help open the market by getting consumers exposed to last year’s collections at attractive prices and help them move up the ladder.
While we believe there is a clear opportunity to make an impact in this market, a systematic, smart and careful approach is what will differentiate the winners from the losers in the long run. x.