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Gold appeared a long time ago and became a precious metal. It’s a very precious metal with various values and plays an important role in the world’s economy today because it is used in many fields of life such as material for making jewelry, decorator, … Besides, gold has been considered as a world currency that is irreplaceable by any other units of account. Therefore, both individuals and businessmen have a high demand for gold, which impulses the development of the gold market in all countries. In Vietnam, gold is used not only as a reserve asset but also as a mean of payment in transactions. Long-time trend of gold price is upward but in short-time period, the price of gold fluctuates very complicatedly. From 2001, gold’s price increases continuously.
Especially, from April 2006, the price gold in Vietnam rised dramatically (from 0.98 million to 1.5 million per unit). Although its stability after that with 1.3 million, its price all over the world and in Vietnam increases sharply, which breaks the record in 1980. Until now, specially in 2012, the price of gold is really “hot”. It sometimes go up to 47.4 million per unit. Comparing December 2011 and December 2001, the gold’s price rises about 8.6 times – it can be called “the century of gold”. After rising dramatically and continuously in a long time, the price had the trend of reducing (from October 2011 to July 2012).
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But it cannot be keep any longer as from the end of August 2012, it rises sharply. The enormous rise in gold price causes an unhealthy psychological effect on people: when the price goes up, they try to buy as much as they can, but when it falls, people tend to sell gold as quickly as possible. This is one of the reason for the expectation of increasing price level of gold, beside the main factor brought by the fluctuations in global gold prices. The instability of gold price seems to make Vietnam’s economy worsen. Moreover, gold market in Vietnam has a close relationship with the market in the world. It raises a question that what is the cause, effect and solution for this fluctuations? Gold’s price reduces or increases, which will have a direct effect on its price in Vietnam? From the above, the reasons for this fluctuation, effects and solutions are the most concern of many people. Thus, we chose “Gold price fluctuations in Vietnam in 2012” as our topic.
I. Overview on gold price:
1.1 Measurement of gold
1.2. The formula to convert the world gold price to the domestic gold price
1.3. Defining the gold price fluctuation
II. Gold price fluctuation in 2012:
2.1. Gold price fluctuation in Vietnam
2.2. Causes of gold price increase
2.2.1. The influence of the world gold price to the domestic gold price
2.2.2. Domestic influence
2.3. The impact of gold price in Vietnam
2.3.1. Impact on real-estate market
2.3.2. Impact on action of commercial banks
2.3.3. Impact on macroeconomic and monetary policy
2.3.4. Impact on speculators
2.4. Methods to stablilize gold price that state bank issued in 2012
III. Prediction on gold price in 2013 and policy suggestions:
3.1. Prediction on gold price in 2013 by experts
3.2. Policy suggestions
1) N. Gregory Mankiw, 2001, Principal of Macroeconomics, 5th edn, page 77, South-western Cengage Learning, USA 2) PwC network, 2012, 2012 Gold Price Survey – PwC, 2012 Gold price report, page 8 Links:
1) Báo Mới, 2012, viewed 27 January, http://www.baomoi.com/Khung-hoang-no-cong-chau-Au-Khoi-u-bat-dau-di-can-Ky-cuoi/45/5432699.epi 2) Báo Mới, 2012, viewed 28 January, http://www.baomoi.com/Vang-dat-muc-gia-trung-binh-2000-USD-trong-2012/126/8184325.epi 3) Chen Zhi, Vietnam’s gold prices fluctuate due to global impacts, March 2012, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-03/30/c_131499479.htm 4) Cổng Thông tin điện tử Chính phủ, viewed 28 January, http://www.chinhphu.vn/portal/page/portal/chinhphu/hethongvanban?class_id=1&a