January 1, 1999 was a memorable date for eleven European Countries as this became the official date that they have come to adopt the Euro as their official currency. All eleven countries would undergo changes in their systems especially the currencies by which they would adopt an official exchange rate that would govern their circulation.
The new currency would begin circulation in their respective countries and would then accommodate the transactions that would result from international trade with their allied countries. Allied countries are the countries belonging to the European Trade Union. They are bound by the cause of establishing their economies worldwide as a major economy like the US. Little by little, the currencies mark, guilder, punt, and franc ceased to exist. It was in January of 2002 that all of the twelve countries have fully applied the transition from their native currencies to the new currency.
From its initial release, fears sprang forth from the population, especially that of the market. First would be the inflation. It occurred to the people that the conversion of their old currency versus the Euro might be affected by the factor of inflation. They feared that the inflation would also result in the weakening of their respective economies and added burden to the population. Second fear would be that the delivery of the new currencies in banks might rouse plans of robberies and would then fail the government’s plan of replacing their old currency. Another fear of the people would be the replacing of the currencies may not be accepted by their own people.
The currency have long been a symbol of a countries identity and pride that it might be a futile attempt to replace it with a new currency that involves other countries and would therefore be an extinct example of national pride. Furthermore, the rate of inflation would greatly affect a country’s exchange of the old currency to the new currency. The greater the inflation would result lower amounts of Euro that a country would get. Second, for a standardization of emerging currencies would mean that banks need to be equipped with the currency in order for them to accommodate the exchange that the population would demand.
In the process of transportation of the currency, there may be a possibility of occurrence a robbery by which the banks may not be able to receive the currencies needed for the exchange by the population. This would result to inflation since the central bank would have to produce more money than the actual measure of its resources that we all know contributes to the factor of inflation.
And lastly, the general acceptance of the public of the currency is a very important factor since this would affect the overall trade and economy of the country. Since the currency is generally viewed as a country’s identity, it can be predicted that the country would not accept the new currency that would be a medium of exchange between its allies, losing its won country’s identity in the process. However, the results were of the opposite as each country’s people accepted the currency as they believed that the currency may be the answer to their economic problems.
These fears proved to be of no basis as people readily accepted the new policy for their new currency. This was somehow given a negative vibe as it looked liked their countrymen easily gave up a symbol national pride. But this was also explained thru economics. Money is still money; thus it was used as something that would provide you with needs such as food, clothing and other necessities. It became evident then that the introduced currency was preferred by the greater number.
The new currency also brought about quite a good side of the economy. Gains were scattered here and there as transaction costs have fallen. This was explained that the conversion costs were stripped by the conversion of the twelve countries monetary units. It became easier to transact with other countries with the use of the Euro. It also brought about the completion of the European Monetary Union.
With this, the member countries would expect bigger gains in their growth and steady in the international market. Before the union was established, barriers remain to be visible as banks still charge higher rates in inter-territorial transactions. With this barrier, domestic transactions would be preferred by the people. With this new monetary policy, barriers have disappeared and transaction costs have been made uniform throughout the countries of its members.
The framework of the union remains complete and no finance ministry of the member countries wanted to be in charge of the said framework, especially that of the finance and fiscal part. The said framework is the framework by which the European Union has agreed to be the guidelines of the system of the implementation for the new currency Euro. Before a specific change would occur that involves a country’s economy, frameworks are done to study the effects that would be associated with the change.
Although this is the case, the change in the currency may be the catalyst for change in the member countries target reforms. The said framework is the framework by which the European Union has agreed to be the guidelines of the system of the implementation for the new currency Euro. Before a specific change would occur that involves a country’s economy, frameworks are done to study the effects that would be associated with the change. The target reforms are those reforms in which the countries have conceived for their countries.
These reforms are in connection to the change in the currency, but are not discussed with the European Union. Since these topics are different from those of the other member countries, they do not discuss this in the meetings of the currency change since the best interest of the European Union is a major economic change in their region, and not only of specific countries. With this, the countries would begin the change in economic policies that would jumpstart economies in synchronization with the change in currency.
Differences in taxation would arise as it would be under observation of each country’s finance ministry. With this, the union would want to target standardization of taxes. This would greatly help the export and import sector as the countries would then be forced to standardize the taxes and tariffs on the goods that they ship. Integration would also be achieved as the basic unit of currency for all members would be that of the Euro.
The last good thing brought about by the establishment of the Euro as currency is that the member countries found a way to reform other sectors and even bring the other countries closer to them. Other sectors that do not flourish because of the exchange rate begin to be of better state when the change occurred. Furthermore, the countries that benefited from the change in currency, especially that of the countries that have the abovementioned sectors, got closer in hopes of making the other sectors that are connected to the aforementioned sectors.
For example, the agriculture sector was jumpstarted, so the other countries would begin to have major ties with other member countries that have sectors that benefit from agriculture like beverage industries and the like. The result would be less taxes and tariffs in exchange for other advantageous measures for the agricultural country. This also enabled them to make new systems that would be for the benefit not only of one country but all of them. They also found out that different policies can be made as one and this paved way for the making of new policies that may be all-encompassing in their point of views.
Although this may be the case we should still take a closer look in the effects of the establishment of the Euro as the new monetary value for the European Union. Things that we would use in this analysis would be that of the Absorption Model: Using “Absorption Model” to explain the effect of devaluation on national income, employment effect, trade effect, real balance effect, income redistribution effect, money illusion effect, expectation effect,Laursen-Metzler effect, and so on; Mundell-Fleming Model and explain the graph both internal and external aspects; Analysis of the stability of foreign exchange market, and elasticity approach to balance of payment according to Marshall-Lerner Condition; and finally Foreign exchange risk (foreign currency)for importers, exporters, and investors.
To start of, we have to explain the different measures that we have to use. The Absorption Model or Approach makes use of the balance of payments and exchange rate as the factors or determinants in the measure of the real domestic income of a nation. This approach treats prices as the constants, making the other factors as real measures. A nation’s real income may be measured as the sum of the government’s expenditures, consumption, investments and exports. The Mundell-Fleming Model states that an increase in the money supply would lower domestic interest rates than that of the global rate.
Essentially, the Euro is in effect in the export/import markets that would be in relation to the country’s overall economy because of the exchange rates that would be in effect of a country’s money supply. Net export would then increase as local goods would become cheaper than that of the imported goods. Consequently, imports would then decrease as demand would decrease, in turn, exports also increase to meet the demand of higher exports. An increase in the net exports would force the Investment/Savings towards the level of the global interest rate. This equalizer increases the income of the economy of the country.
In this case, as the union moved to change its currency, the money supply increased to accommodate the public in the changing of currencies. As this adjustment takes place, the effect of the supply made a change in the export market as the demand for exports and imports changed. The increase in the net export in the end, gave the country an increase in its income.
The Foreign Exchange Risk would also be taken into account as this involves the probability that an investor, exporter or importer would earn; how much they would ear, and if they would lose. This gains or losses are commonly related to the exchange rates of the two countries involved in the transaction. This also shows whether a country has a weaker currency compared to another. By this, we would be able to show if the establishment of the new currency eliminates this factors as this factors are also related to the barriers of trade between the member countries.
Meanwhile, the Lauren-Metzler effect determines the effect of savings and net exports and consequently, in the purchasing power due to a favorable terms-of-trade shock in the improvement in real income. This draws our attention to the state of the economy in exports and imports with respect to its exchange rate.
The Marshall-Lerner Condition explains that a devaluation in the currency leads a positive effect in the trades as it increases the demand for exports, giving the country more real income. This lays out the positive effect of the devaluation of the Euro currency at first and how it affected the economy of the member countries. Finally, with all these factors mentioned, how did it affect the member countries generally? What are the aspects of the Euro-member countries that have improved thru the establishment of the new currency, Euro, into their respective economies? We start off the analysis with the discussion of the effects. The Mundell-Fleming Model states that an increase in the money supply would lower domestic interest rates than that of the global rate. The money supply is the black line denoted in the figure above, while the red line denotes the interest rate. The movement in the money supply curve towards the right decreases the interest rate since it does not shift. The shift would occur as the interest rate moves to an equilibrium.
With the same effect in the graph of net exports and imports, the figure above agrees with the first figure on the effect of the money supply. Net export would then increase as local goods would become cheaper than that of the imported goods. Consequently, imports would then decrease as demand would decrease, in turn, exports also increase to meet the demand of higher exports.
An increase in the net exports would force the Investment/Savings towards the level of the global interest rate. This equalizer increases the income of the economy of the country. In this case, as the union moved to change its currency, the money supply increased to accommodate the public in the changing of currencies. As this adjustment takes place, the effect of the supply mad a change in the export market as the demand for exports and imports changed. The increase in the net export in the end, gave the country an increase in its income.
Meanwhile, the change in government expenditure caused an increase in the local interest rate that caused the currency to be stronger than other foreign currencies. This may be the effect that happened to the member countries as they have decreased the foreign currencies (member countries having the same currency) and by this strengthened their currencies against the US dollar. This however, increases the net import and net export decreases. The increase would also trigger the global interest to equalize with the local interest.
On the side of the global interest rate, however, since the net export increased, this prompted a slight weakening of the Euro but also increased exports, making the Euro available to the world market. An increase of the net export would weaken the Euro since the exchange rate would then be fixed with other countries. This would be comparable to making domestic shipments that would neither benefit nor harm a country’s economy. At the same time, since the Euro has become their medium of exchange then the currency would be available to the market as this would be exchanged in the world market. Availability of the currency would ensure circulation in the world market, employing the stabilization of the currency in the world market.
As the Euro weakened, exports flowed out of the country and this in effect increased the net income of the member countries. However, as the local interest rate closed in on the global interest rate. The global interest rate affects the currencies indirectly by affecting a country’s income through the import/export market. The Euro seemed to strengthen and this somehow stabilized the new currency.
Elasticities are the rate of reaction by which a good undergoes whenever a change in demand occurs. The next model would explain the effect of the Euro in the demand and the reaction of the goods with the new currency available. In the Elasticities Approach, the Euro countries were forced to make the demand and supplies elastic in order for them to have a smaller depreciation in their current accounts deficit. By doing this, they begin to slowly, recover the current accounts deficit and eventually overcome it. With this situation, elasticities would then be slowly changed. As the global interest rates’ effects as shown by the previous models, the effect of it in the real income made the change in the elasticities possible. Thus:
The effects on the savings of the real income and savings of each country may be further explained by now. Since the increase in savings and net exports was explained through the change in the level of the global interest rates, the improvement in real income is then realized through the increase in the purchasing power of exports. This then proved to be of positive effects on the member countries as this somehow, improved the real income in the economies of the member countries.
Lauren-Metzler Model in simple representation. The Lauren-Metzler Model can be further explained by the rate of change not only in export-import industry but also that of the effect of these changes in the exchange rates. As the exchange rates between member companies remain constant because of the uniformality of their currency what would transpire is the difference in the currency between the member-countries and its export-import industry and the exchange rate. Since an increase in the export can be viewed as an indication of a weaker currency, this also indicates that the real income of the country experiencing the export growth is on the rise.
This would eventually be accompanied by the strengthening of its currency as the end product. At the same time, the demand of the member-countries import market tends to be on the lower level as their currency seemed to be of the weaker quality. The positive effect on this however is that this picture encouraged the internal flow of the currency until the supply of imports and demand equalizes in equilibrium. When the time approached however, the Euro appeared to be of better quality with respect to the change in its real income and the real income of other countries that are members of the European Union. With these factors in mind, we shift our sights into what happened in the exchange rates.
The Exchange rates of the Euro seemed to be on the decrease at first because of the lower currency as compared to others but eventually proved that it would only be momentary as the real income boosted the exchange rate, eventually ending up higher than the US dollar at a certain time. This, together with the positive effects on the import-export market made much difference, not only to the emerging currency but also to the emerging union’s countries’ economies. The emerging union’s countries are the countries that are members of the European Trade Union that has the highest upward boost of the economies. Since not all of the countries had a very high boost, the most significant boosts came from these countries.
Significance would differ from each perspective. In more simple terms, the effect of the lower currency (Euro was weak at first) was the improvement of the export market. But since the income effect boosted the currency as it is also a factor of the economy of a country, then combining it with the positive effects of the Euro’s strengthening, the countries that use Euro become boosted and improve their Economies. And since the Economy of the countries rose at an improved rate, the currency got boosted in the same way that the economies of member countries raised.
With the price on the y-axis and the x-axis denoting that of the quantity, the fall of the currency at first with respect to the rise in the export rate, implied a shift in the curve of the currency (red curve) to the right, denoting that in the long run, an export rate rise would result to a strong currency. The fall of the currency at first would be only due to the exchange rate and floatation costs.
In the Absorption Approach, the balance of payments and exchange rates is examined to the effects of it in the measure of the real income of a nation. The Absorption Approach is significant since this measures the balance of payments and exchange rates and how these affect the real income of a country. The two factors considered are said to be the considering factors in the since the effects considered are those that are in relationship to the income and economy. If the real income improves faster than that of the absorption, then the currency would rise. This may be the effect as the Euro strengthened in the first quarter of 2002, giving their value higher than the stable US dollar.
The effects of the devaluation of the currency on national income seemed to be on the positive side as this increased their net exports, therefore giving them an improved real income for the economy. The employment then rose as an effect of the economy’s improvement of real income. This was enabled as the countries to attract more investors, creating job opportunities for their people. The overall employment effect on the member countries followed to a positive tune.
Real balance increased as it accompanies the effect of real income. An increase in real income increases the real balance of the economy. This is essential to the analysis because this enables us to see the investing potential and the financial capability by which the country could bear itself.(Flood, 2006) The specific question to be asked: how does the country fare with its neighboring countries’ economies in their real balances? This is very important as this may measure the stability of the country especially in the eyes of potential investors that may think of putting up businesses and other ventures in the European Countries.
Basic supply and demand in the Trade Effect Basic y-axis of price and x-axis denoted by quantity, the shift in the supply curve was due to the invisible hand of the law of supply and demand. Trade effect also became evident as the laws of supply and demand are constantly in the work. The increase in the quantity demanded ensured the right path of the trade effect to the plans of the European Union. This enabled them to exercise the free-trade among its co-members. This also enforced the Euro consequently as it continued to circulate non-stop among the member countries. This also ensured that not only is the market gaining in stocks, it also ensured a strong currency that may be strengthening in the future.
The money illusion decreased as the negative views in unemployment and inflation subside. The unemployment rates subside creating a hole in which they could throw the unemployment problem and bury it there. The inflation was treated the same way as neighboring countries would also experience the same way as they also have the same currency as the country they have. The money illusion is essential in explaining the other rise in the economy including the abovementioned factor of unemployment and inflation. To reinforce this, the money illusion would have to decrease as this affects the unemployment by reinforcement. A decrease would also mean that the unemployment rate is decreasing, which is a measure of a country’s economy. The unity of the currency forged the singleness of mind that was needed to erase the doubts governed by the unemployment and inflation.
The expectation effect of these occurrences may result to the expectance of more Nash equilibriums, where everyone would be on a stable state. The Nash equilibrium employed in this part deals with the output and expenditure ratio. The more that a government puts input should generate a proportional output; in this case, income. As the reliance of the people on the currency grows and their reliance towards the stability of the currency, they would come to terms that they have indeed been placed in good fortunes.
This would lead to the stability of the minds of employees, and in turn to the investor that made the investment or business. The stability of minds would be the likelihood that an employee would remain in the job rather than find their jobs elsewhere. This occurs when the currency of a country remains weak despite the efforts of the workforce to bring it on a development. With these effects in hand, it became evident that the emergence of the Euro has been a good sign for the economy and even looked better in the eyes of the common people as they have been provided work and salary, and even the pride of having their currency among the top as one of the most stable.
13. The Marshall-Lerner Condition further enforced that the decrease in the value of the Euro at first improved the real income of each member. The effect of the devaluation increased their exports, raking in income more then before. As a currency gets weak, demands of good from the country with the weak currency increases. The goods react spontaneously, or elasticly. The rise in demand raises the price of its goods and with this; the rise in income is justified.
The chain effect would be the strengthening of a nation’s economy, ending up with currency stability. After which, as the currency begins to regain the strength, the exports would decrease as importers from other countries realize that the price of goods increased, decreasing their profits. However, the export industry of the host country is unharmed as other European member nations see this as an opportunity to increase their imports from the country with the same currency as them, increasing demands for export from the country in question. With this, the export and import market stabilized.
This effect not only increased the income of the exporters, but the economy as well. The short-run effect of the condition is further shown as the currency approached its strengthening thru the increase of real income, the export then decreased. Furthermore, the law of demand states that, a decrease in the price of a commodity, then an increase in demand would be evident; an increase in price however would put the demand down until equilibrium happens. In this case, the price of exports decreases, paving way for the increase in the exports and consequent rise in the country’s income. This would also be affected by the consequent taking place of the equilibrium that would happen as the supply would be able to meet the demand, giving the market an equilibrium quantity.
As there were shifts in the part of the supply (black) and demand (red) curves, the equilibrium price of commodities would also make a change. The price line is the broken lines with the color blue. Taking in mind that the y-axis would be the price and the x-axis is the quantity, the decrease in demand, coupled with the increase in supply, not only decreased price but also made the equilibrium quantity lower than before. One of the places that the change showed great effects would be that of the financial markets, the bonds/stock market being the main targets. Main issues have risen that the European stock and bonds are very much volatile.
This proved that the policy makers of the European Union have set their eyes in the processes towards the financial integration of its members. This started off with the introduction of the new currency. The release of the new currency was seen as one of the initiatives made by the Union to integrate the financial aspects of each. It looked like a very good move on their part as real income of the member countries went on a rise during the initial stages of the developments. The effect of the large demand for the stocks and bonds from the European Union and its sudden drop is something out of the ordinary for other countries. It seemed like they failed to account for the strength of the member countries and their foresight on financial market as they were surprised with the sudden rise in this new commodity. We therefore have to take an even closer look at the effects at the financial markets.
Before the emergence of the Euro, aggregate European Bonds, mainly caused by own bond market effects and that of the aggregate effects of European Bonds, made significant effects on the conditional variances, as this reflects unexpected returns. In addition to that, US bond and stock markets represents a fairly large space in the market. However, after the Euro was made to be a reality, the US markets only became second-runners after that of the European Union.(McCreevy, 2006) This also caused a decrease in the effect of their own bond markets and it’s not just a decrease but a dramatic decrease in their part.
Also before the Euro emergence, a significant volatility spillover is present in the US bond markets. But after the Euro emerged, it seemed like a dream come true for the European countries as the spillover have changed. Not only was the European Bond become in demand in the market but it also proved to be of commanding force in the Stock Market. After the emergence of the As mentioned earlier, the US was just second then to the European Bonds and Stocks. This happened in 2003.(2004)
In the introduction of European Bonds and Securities in 1999, it has successfully grown from 9% to 14% shares. Also in 2003, Euro’s currency in international bank notes has overtaken US’s 40.5 and emerged with a 43.5.( as a percentage of outstanding volume totaling to 100) This was further reinforced by the fact that before the emergence of the Union’s own stocks, the US commands the market. However, that all changed with the appearance of the European Bonds, giving the US market someone to contend with in terms of leadership in the market.
The financial market offered many effects in various submarkets. The capital market, for one, tries to keep the inflation in check this past days.(Dennis, 2006) It seems that the first effects were very good that they didn’t seem to think the effect on their capital market would be these troublesome. On the other hand, the equities market is also suffering as the inflation kicks in on their prices. It seemed they cannot cope with the inflation that continues to rise. However, in the place of Currencies, the Eurozone countries may be in a winning mood as they continue to outpace the US by their good growth.(Atkins, 2006)
The bonds market is also sharing some suffering although not that evident. What the bonds market shows ,however, is a positive outlook in the future as it slowly goes for a good turn. The commodities market is also suffering a loss as they import more oil. This is not a very good sign for the Euro as oil is a very important commodity. However, this is just as normal as everyone else, says analysts.(Chisholm, 2006) The overall effects of these economic theories have been equally represented and analyzed, what then remained is the effect in the foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange found that the weak-at-first currency strengthened as the economic forces turned into their works. The Euro eventually found its way to the top and eventually became one of the top currencies in the foreign exchange. The Euro is now currently viewed as one of the “high” currencies and is even viewed in the market as one of the stables, aligning itself to the dollar and yen. Market analysts view the currency as one of the top as it tends to appreciate more than devaluate.
The GDP and the GNP of the Euro countries are suffering on a low this 2006 and it was issued as a great challenge for the European Union to make policies that may prevent this.(Flood, 2006) This was stressed out earlier in the elasticities effect and the absorption approach. This may be overcome in many ways possible but it would be for the policymakers to do. The PPP and the PFI was sought for improvement of the economy and as of the plans in 2002(2002), few were impressed by the effect of the Euro on these. However, as 2006 draws to a close in December, it would be wise for the policymakers to rethink their strategies.
The sudden emergence of the new currency, Euro, was such a surprise that the market adjusted drastically. This proved to be of good sign for the members of the European Union as this eventually lead to the leadership of the stock markets and bond markets abroad. This also lead to the development of their own countries as far as the union is concerned. More businesses have been established, more investors expressing interest in putting up enterprises in the European Union’s member countries, perspective buyers in the financial markets looking for more of bonds and stock belonging to the Union, and even the population of the European Union expressing relief that after the Great Depression, there appeared a silver lining that would express hope for their economies.
Furthermore, the effect on the financial market is good as it removed the exchange rate risk involved in the international trade. Exchange rate risk was great before since the countries of the union have different currencies. However, with the emergence of the Euro, investors can now remove the exchange rate risk in their concerns since this is not present anymore. Countries of the Union can now trade with each other without having to think of the floatation risks that involve the exchange rate risk. The removal of this factor was about the same time that the changeover was made in 2002. (2001)
The smart move of the European union may be brought about by the good planning of the financial ministries that governed them. The taking advantage of the lower currency at first to increase their real income, the lowering of its local interest seemed to be a well-planned way to be at par with a superpower such as the US. Now that they have the upperhand in the stock and bonds market, economists wonder on what else is next on the agenda of the European Union, now that they have proven to the world that their combined currency would mobilize and command stability in their areas. This also seemed a good bragging right to their decision making skills as more of the European Countries seek membership to the Union. With this in their worksheets, they can again make another policy that would again prove to be of great importance to the history of World Economics.
The replacement of the currencies by the Euro may have been a smart move after all. It didn’t look that bad and it never looked like throwing out of national sympathies eventually. But thus, it looked like a well-orchestrated plan of the European Union to gain access to the top echelons of the world market. Now that they have gained access, it seemed like there would be no stopping the union in toppling the US as an economic superpower and industrial zone. Now that the other members are continuing their development, and not just by the numbers, but on exponential terms, there might be bright things to look forward to in the years to come.
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