A Review of Five Articles by Using the Event History or the Survival Analysis Within the Context of Civil War Duration

Categories: Civil WarHistory

The quantitative methods of data collection mainly involve the collection of data in numerical forms like percentages and statistics. These mean that the researchers particularly asks a specific question that is narrow and tend to collect samples of numerical data that may come from the observable phenomena or from the study participants that try to answer the question. My essay will try to review five recent articles by using the event history or the survival analysis which will be within the context of civil war duration.

The first article that I will review is of Stephen P. Aldrich, 2015. The primary purpose of research behind this article was in the decision-making that involved the environment in the land war that has been there in the Amazon region. Amazon area is generally covered by forests and is undergoing the problem of deforestation that makes the future uncertain by holding no expectations. The science of land change has extended and applied the notion using a assortment of ways that have displayed multiple systematic case studies and analyzes.

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Both the distal and proximate drivers of land adjustment are crucial in a broad variety of social systems and environments with varying features (Aldrich 39). Some of the distal and proximate drivers may have their derivations from the property rights like agricultural expansion and mineral extraction. While may often originate from the future capacity that those material goods rights usually may enable such as telecommunication and transport. However, these enhancers have been in the provision of a number of chains that hold robust explanations for the land change.

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These hold the main objective of research in helping us making decisions that are viable when it comes to land issues taking into consideration all the drivers.

By using various hypotheses, it becomes succinct of what should be done although collecting relevant data on land occupations can sometimes be difficult. It is because the available land habitation account are fairly complete and are very concise, or they may be detailed but comparatively limited in scope. Therefore, the process of gathering relevant data so that to evaluate a good spatial decision-making of the social movements’ organizations (SMO) involves holding interviews with the stakeholders. Also, it may involve collecting data from geographical data systems and the extraction of information from the newspapers. In order to improve the land cover plans the classification and processing of Landsat five images may also be involved (Aldrich 45). The dependent variable that is present in all the models that was presented, were being established from the news descriptions of the habitations that transpired that is being dual and tend to indicate whether the landholding were occupied in the course of the study period.

The interviews with the officials from the government were n=3, the SMO members were n=83, and the large holders were n=19. Rather than the process of limiting the models of the logistic deterioration to the occupations in a particular year, interpretations for each of the land-holding were simulated and the ones that were occupied in the previous year were excluded. The strategic models of the logistics regression were in support of some statements by the stakeholders like the title problems, proximity to town, environmental violations, and landholding size were all substantial changers of the occupation prospect. Considering the design, the planned logistics deterioration model variables did not capture the SMO members’ interests. Therefore, I divided the variables that reflect the resource base value and those that presumably desire in occupying the viable agricultural land.

The results displayed indicated that the forest cover, highway accessibility, and distance from the towns were significant changes tothe likelihood of the occupation. The forest quantity considerably increased the chances of the occupation and the buildings in the main roads that intersected them had higher probability of occupation (Aldrich 52). The quality of the soil and right ti use water were not so significant in altering the occupation probabilities. Higher proportions of the forest significantly increased the occupation risk with about 10% more regular of the forest cover on the property closely doubling caused by its occupation risk. The second article that I will address is by Madhav Joshi, 2013 that was a research held about the stability of transition and inclusive institutions toward equality in the post-civil war countries.

The article brought together the researchers of democratic consolidation and democratization with the view of terminating the civil war. The environment of the post-civil warfare was argumentative and the involved changeover towards equality that was attained after the civil warfare was vulnerable to failure. The party that usually wins the democratic polls in a particular post-war government might use their constitutionally won power in dismantling the democracy organizations by repressing opposition (Joshi 744). The constant marginalization fear in the processes of the political together with the fear of repression may tend to create motivations for the party that is defeated to reappear in the civil battle. Hence, former rivals would be in support of the democratic transition. These would occur simply with the condition that they were very assured that the all-encompassing institutions would ensure that they might have to accomplish their interests of political via the elective procedures. After the data analysis, I found that the system of proportionate depiction and the system of parliamentary were the most crucial foundations that mainly helped to endure the transitions toward democracy (TTD) post civil war.

The hypotheses that were incorporated here were inline with the hypothetical argument that proposed that the post-civil war TTD existence should depend on the reimbursements and the costs’ calculations of the previous rivals who involved in the processes of democracy after the civil warfare. Therefore, the data set only included the cases that had already experienced the positive three-point change during the years of the civil wars. The variable that was dependent on the analysis was the TTD stability in the states of the post-conflict. In order to identify the TTD in the post-clash states ‘CHANGE’ was used as the variable in the Polity IV dataset (Joshi 762). The H1 was the hypothesis that was tested whereby the dataset from the Golder’s electoral system was used which was available starting from 1946 to 2000. In 2005 other datasets were used which included the African Elections Database and the CIA World Factbook. The duration variables of the civil wars usually come from Sambanis.

The variables are often measured in months and mainly ranges from one month up to 308 months. The battle deaths variable comes from the Sambanis and is frequently modernized by the use of the TPI-Project narratives’ case. According to the hypotheses one (H1) it suggested that the survival that was of the TTD was likely to rise with the PR electoral system adoption. In the statistical tests that were performed, it was found that the electoral system of PR was significant and positive with significance level of at least 0.05 across all the models. The coefficient that was estimated for the system of PR was 1.604, which was being equal to 0.079 in hazard ratio terms. These suggested that the PR system adoption in the post-civil war governments was likely to increase the post civil war TTD survival by 92% as put in comparison to the majoritarian system. On the other hand, these were in support of the argument that the survival chances of the TTD usually increased when the system of Electoral was more inclusive (Joshi 765).

It was evident that the democratic transition of the post-civil war had a likelihood of failure when the majoritarian electoral system was being adopted in place of the PR electoral system. These were in support of the argument that the PR system rises the opportunity for politically mobilized groups in order to participate in political processes. The third article that am going to look at is by Shivaji Mukherjee, 2014, which is about the longest insurgencies and the low violence. It also executed researches on soil sons, politician motivations, civil wars, and civil war period. According to researchers, there are two problems that remain unsolved by the civil conflicts theorists. The initial puzzle is the one that asks, why are those insurgencies that are longest be the ones with the low levels of violence? The second puzzle to be explained is, why multiple of these low-intensity conflicts protracted usually do occur in relatively capable states, such as Thailand, India, Russia, and India which tend to be robust in other military capacity and governance aspects (Mukherjee 174).

The author when researching argued that the average capacity states, particularly when being confronted with numerous clashes simultaneously tend to select a counterinsurgency containment strategy. The strategy is usually in line with those revolutions that are mainly cultural peripheral soil sons, type clashes, hence, extending the conflict involved and making it near to the ground intensity. This research suggests the need for analyzing the politician motivations in order to understand the counterinsurgency policy that regards the peripheral insurgencies. Four hypotheses were developed in order to assist in broadly researching the topic. Hypothesis one was to deal with the revolutions in the average capacity states that incline to be of longer period compared to those that are in weak volume or the resilient capacity states. The second hypothesis was to focus on the revolts in the moderate capacity states that were concurrently faced with the other skirmishes. It looked at why they tend to be elongated duration more than the moderate capacity states that are challenged with only one encounter (Mukherjee 195).

The third hypothesis focused peripheral soil sons’ insurgences in the medium capacity countries that are instantaneously faced with numerous skirmishes. It addressed why they tended to have longer duration than the non-peripheral insurgencies that are found in such states of medium capacity. The fourth and the last hypothesis was to look at the peripheral soil sons’ revolutions in the average capacity states that are simultaneously confronted with many clashes. It emphasized on why they have lower violence levels than the non-peripheral insurgencies in similar medium capacity states. It was revealed that nearly 12.2 percent of the occurring skirmishes in the medium capability states were low intensity of long duration (LILD). Where 0 percent of the conflicts mainly happened in the weak capability states, and about 3.45 percent usually occurred in the strong capacity states that were low intensity with long duration insurgencies. Therefore, the Pearson’s chi-squared probability was 0.057 and, hence, the null-hypothesis showed that there was no connection depicted among column and row variables and, therefore, can be excluded (Mukherjee 202). These tend to be an indication that something must exist in the medium capability countries that mainly results in LILD conflicts.

Another way that was being applied to develop the same intuition was based on looking Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Through the Kaplan-Meier, it was evident that the average capability states were tending to have the civil conflicts that mainly lasted longer on regular more than the states that are weak or the strong. These seemed that those countries that have three or two insurgencies that occurred simultaneously have the longest duration. On the other hand, those countries that had five or four simultaneous insurgencies often had shorter wars that were an interesting result to have achieved. The fourth article in the review was by Mohamed M. Mostafa and the Mohaned Talib Al Hamdi, 2014. The article visualized the Geographical influence, geopolitics and oil on the civil wars that occurred in the Arab World. The research main purpose was to identify why some of the inner conflicts are mainly swiftly terminated whereas others mostly linger for many periods without arriving at a impending resolution that is to occur in the horizon.

The research further found that civil wars mainly involved three main parties, at least one internal insurgent’s group, the existing state, and probably the outside actors who may get involved at a particular state in the period when the internal clash is proceeding amongst the two parties that were first with conflicts (Mostafa 240). Regarding the survey that has been witnessed for the last seventy years, it was established that a quarter of the inside conflicts regularly ended in a period of within eight months, but for the other quarter it mainly lasted for periods exceeding five years. Other civil warfare lingered for decades. The Gleditsch’s and Lacina data on the battle deaths revealed that the internal conflicts that mainly last for less than two years usually yields deaths of about 3,000 people. Although those clashes that last for extensive duration that is above two years average generates about 44 thousand deaths.

Five hypotheses were held to ensure that the research performed was to be relied upon in making good conclusions. The first hypothesis postulated that the distant the skirmish tends to be from the capital, the longer the civil war duration it brings. The second hypothesis stated that the near the conflict to the international border, the longer the civil war duration it depicts. The third hypothesis was stating that the rough the terrain, the longer the civil war duration (Mostafa 247). The fourth hypothesis that was put into place states that the fragile the insurgents that were convoluted in the conflict, the lengthier the civil war period. The fifth the hypothesis stated that the closer the conflict to valuables and oil natural resources, the lengthier the period of civil war. The above hypothesis are in focus of period of the civil war that is primarily affected by multiple variables depending on their availability to the place where the clash transpires.

Kohonen SOM was used in exploring the geopolitical factors’ influence on the civil war duration that occurred in the world of the Arabs. Among the multiple software packages that were available the one used was the SOMine package version 5.0. The software tends to automatically find the SOM clusters that were efficient by applying the advanced techniques of artificial intelligence. However, in order to delineate the cluster boundaries clearly, a hierarchical cluster analysis method was applied along with the Ward Linkage method. It was evident that the largest cluster had a frequency of about 57.63 percent. These represented the mid-range cluster of civil war duration (Mostafa 250). The civil wars of the Arabs are mainly classified as having the medium distance to the capital of about 149 kilometres, the capability of the medium rebels’ fighting.

Also, it was evident that the duration of the civil war lasted for longer whenever it was near to any valuable and oil natural resources. These resulted since most cases in Arab countries, conflict arises due to the natural resources that are available in the place. Whereby one organization or group want to start their mine for the natural resource and the other group is refusing for mining to take place. The fifth review of the article will be by Andrew R. Lewis, 2014. The article is all about staffing of the front lines in the culture wars. The research that was being held was about the culture war that existed in US politics and the kind of connection that existed to party polarity. The research includes the connections that mainly existed between the institutional and public actors. The political and the religious elites, the social media, and social scientists have tried to stage their war that is over the existence of the culture hostilities in the political affairs of the Americans.

The article further contributes to the understanding of the connections that are institutional between cultural and polarization politics of war (Lewis 168). These are done by evaluating the kind of affiliations that exist between the senator’s assignments and her or his supporters in regard to the “Senate Judiciary Committee”. These mean that if the war on culture is mainly happening in American organizations then the “Senate Judiciary Committee” is in most cases, the playhouse. The results of this research showed that the state religious masterpiece was associated to the committee assignment, however, the senator’s party mainly mediated this outcome. By drawing upon the wars of the culture, legislative and religion, behavior, literature, and party polarization there were three hypotheses that were developed by linking the integral religion to the Judiciary Committee Assignment.

The first hypothesis was to postulate that the augmented proportions of the conventional Christians in the state ought to most probably escalation the likelihood of the Republican senator to being selected to the Committee on Judiciary. These were mainly for the reason that the senator would desire that the assignment to be pleasing to her or his district whereby the party governance has the obligation of complying with these desires (Lewis 172). The second hypothesis was stated that the interactive impact of the senator’s party affiliation and the religious identity will mainly arise since the Christians right mainly develops and tend to play a leading role in the politics of the Republican Party. The third hypothesis stated that the interactive impact that occurred between the senator’s party and the religion the assignment the Committee of Judiciary was to be found by the freshman senators that was since 1980.

All the hypotheses were developed in favor of research to be performed. According to the results that were obtained from the research the proportion of the conventional Christians in the state and the affiliation that existed in the “Committee of State Judiciary” were in support of the primary hypothesis which is also the first hypothesis in the study. Between the years 1973 to 2009 there was seen to be approximately 20 percent more of the Democratic senators from the states that were at the bottom of the 25th conservative Christian adherents’ percentile. On the other hand, there were 20 percent more Republican senators that were from the states that occurred in the 25th top percentile (Lewis 175). In the counties with the top 25″ percentile, the Republicans already have a ratio of 3-1 benefits over the Democrats. These results were in the provision of the initial support to conservative Christian constituents that was for the appointment of Judiciary Committee. Also, the results indicated that wider chamber was less polarized than the Judiciary Committee.

Works Cited

  1. Andrew R. Lewis (2014). Staffing The Front Lines of the Culture War: Constituency Religious Effects on Assignment to the Senate Judiciary Committee. Department of Political Science, University of Cincinnati, Ohio. Pp 167-188.
  2. Madhav Joshi (2013) Inclusive institutions and stability of transition toward democracy in post civil war states, Democratization, 20:4, 743-770, DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2012.666067.
  3. Mohamed M. Mostafa & Mohaned Talib Al-Hamdi (2014) Visualizing the Influence of Geography, Oil and Geopolitics on Civil Wars in the Arab World: A Novel Application of Self-Organizing Maps and Duration Models, Civil Wars, 16:2, 239-254, DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2014.927704.
  4. Shivaji Mukherjee (2014) Why Are the Longest Insurgencies Low Violence? Politician Motivations, Sons of the Soil, and Civil War Duration, Civil Wars, 16:2, 172-207, DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2014.927702.
  5. Stephen P. Aldrich (2015) Decision-making and the environment in the Amazon Land War, Journal of Land Use Science, 10:1, 38-58, DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2014.951082.

Cite this page

A Review of Five Articles by Using the Event History or the Survival Analysis Within the Context of Civil War Duration. (2021, Sep 29). Retrieved from https://studymoose.com/a-review-of-five-articles-by-using-the-event-history-or-the-survival-analysis-within-the-context-of-civil-war-duration-essay

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