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Human Resource Forecasting Essay

PART 1: HUMAN RESOURCE FORECASTING

Reference: Adapted from Human Resource Forecasting Assignment, pp 108 – 110 in Nkomo, S. M., Fottler, M. D., McAfee, R. B. (2008) Human Resource Management Applications: Cases, Exercises, Incidents, and Skill Builders, 6th Edition

Due date: Week 9

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

•Practice in forecasting an organisation’s people needs •To familiarize you with some of the factors that affect an organisation’s future people needs •To familiarise you with the complexities involved in making human resource forecasts •To point out that all human resource forecasting is based on assumptions and that these assumptions are critical to the accuracy of the forecast

INSTRUCTIONS

It has been a busy year with staff turnover, new employees and new equipment on order. Your CEO has requested a forecast of the human resource needs for North West Regional Hospital for the coming years.

North West Regional Hospital (NWRH) is a purpose built, 180-bed inpatient facility and the largest regional hospital in the state. NWRH also has 15 outreach sites located throughout tropical, northern Australia, each of which employs approximately 17 individuals. In total, NWRH currently employs 700 people.

Over the coming three years, NWRH is planning an expansion into additional regional areas and expects to add 25 new outreach sites. Each outreach site varies in size according to the needs of the community, so the figures represent averages.

During the past month, NWRH has placed an order for 3 new dialysis machines to increase its renal support services. These machines are scheduled to be in operation December 31, one year from now in existing outreach sites only. NWRH has found that for each new machine purchased requires four (4) additional nurses, on average. In addition, five (5) new doctors are added in year 2. A breakdown of NWRH’s current staffing is shown in Table 1.

Your CEO has asked you to perform three human resource-forecasting tasks. First, based on the assumptions given below, you are required to determine employee turnover for the inpatient facility office, the old outreach sites, and the new outreach sites. The CEO would like to know this information for each of the next three years and for each of the major personnel categories (i.e., Doctors, Nurses, and Inpatient Facility Administration staff).

Your job is to complete Table 2.

Second, your CEO would like to know the number of new employees NWRH will need to hire for each major personnel category for each of the next three years.

Your job is to complete Table 3.

Finally, your CEO would like to know the total number of employees who will be working for NWRH as of the end of each of the next three years.

Your job is to complete Table 4.

Table 1: Present staffing
Total Employees700
Number of outreach sites15
Doctors per outreach site5
Number of Doctors75
Nurses per outreach site12
Number of Nurses180
Outreach facility employees255
Inpatient Facility Employees445

Table 2: Turnover
Employee CategoryCurrent YearYear 1Year 2Year 3
Old outreach site Doctors
Old outreach site nurses
Inpatient facility
New outreach site Doctors
New outreach site nurses
TOTALS

Table 3: Number of Employees to be hired
Employee CategoryCurrent YearYear 1Year 2Year 3
Old outreach site Doctors
Old outreach site nurses
Inpatient facility
New outreach site Doctors
New outreach site nurses
TOTALS

Table 4: Year-End Employment
Employee CategoryCurrent YearYear 1Year 2Year 3
Old outreach site Doctors
Old outreach site nurses
Inpatient facility
New outreach site Doctors
New outreach site nurses
TOTALS

In order to complete your assignment, your CEO has told you to make a number of assumptions. They are:

A.You are making all projections in December for subsequent years ending December 31

B.With regard to the existing outreach offices, assume

a.The 15 existing outreach offices employ 5 doctors and 12 nurses each. b.On December 31 (one year hence) 3 new dialysis machines are placed in operation and require an additional 12 nurses (4 per machine). c.On December 31 in the 2nd year, 5 new doctors are employed. d.Turnover rate is 40 percent for nursing personnel, and 20 percent for doctors.

C.With regard to new outreach sites, assume
a.New outreach sites are added as follows: 6 in Year 1, 10 in Year 2, and 9 in Year 3. b.Each new outreach site employs 17 individuals (5 doctors and 12 nurses). c.Turnover is 30 percent for nurses, and 20 percent for doctors.

D.With regard to the inpatient facility, assume that turnover will be 15 percent per year.

PART 2: WRITING JOB DESCRIPTION & RECRUITMENT ADVERTISEMENT

References:Adapted from Job Analysis: Writing Job Description, pp 97-99 in Nkomo, S. M., Fottler, M. D., McAfee, R. B. (2008) Human Resource Management Applications: Cases, Exercises, Incidents, and Skill Builders, 6th Edition

Note: For your presentation in Week 5, you will use one (1) Job Description to develop one (1) Advertisement to present as a group. The developed advertisement cannot be used in the Portfolio Assignment.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

•To familiarise you with the job analysis process and with job descriptions •Practice in writing job descriptions
•To make you aware of different methods for recruiting candidates and stand out from the crowd

INSTRUCTIONS:Job Analysis, Writing Job Descriptions and Recruitment Advertising

You are required to write three (3) job descriptions, one (1) job advertisement, and one (1) selection criteria for the Portfolio Assignment.

The job advertisement should reflect one (1) selected job description (choose one (1) – doctor, nurse, and inpatient facility administrator), and the selection criteria should reflect the selected job advertisement to create a flow in your portfolio.

A.Draw up a set of job descriptions for each of the (3) positions in the case (doctor, nurse, and inpatient facility administrator).

You may use whatever sources you want, including interviewing people you may know in these positions or similar positions or searching relevant web sites as you want job descriptions and lists of duties that apply specifically to regional hospitals and outreach facilities.

The Job Analysis Questionnaire (below) can be used as a guide to help determine the major responsibilities and tasks of the job and the required knowledge, skills, abilities, and personal characteristics needed to perform the job.

Remember to write the job description using action verbs when describing the employee’s tasks, duties, and responsibilities. It is also important that specific duties be grouped and arranged in descending order of importance.

The complete job description should follow the format shown in sample provided (below).

B.Choose (1) job description to draft one (1) job advertisement, to attract the right people to apply for that position. Write the advertisement as if it will appear on an online employment agency (e.g. seek.com). It will need to stand out amongst the many thousands of other positions being advertised.

Job Analysis Questionnaire
A.Job Responsibilities and Duties
a.Job title
b.Department title and/or division title
c.Title of immediate supervisor
d.Description of duties (describe the duties in enough details to provide a complete and accurate description of the work) i.Provide a general overall summary of the purpose of your job ii.What are the major results or outputs of your job?

iii.Describe the duties and tasks you perform daily; weekly; monthly.

iv.Describe duties you perform irregularly.
e.List any machines, instruments, tools, machine, materials, and work aids used in your job. Indicate percent of time used. f.Describe the nature of your responsibility for nonhuman resources (money, machinery, machine and so on). What monetary loss can occur through an error? g.What reports and records do you prepare as part of your job? When are they prepared? h.What is the source of instructions for performing your job (e.g. oral or written specifications)? i.Describe the nature and frequency of supervision received. j.How is your work reviewed, checked, or verified?

B.Reporting Relationships
a.How many employees are directly under your supervision? What are their job titles? b.Do you have full authority to hire, terminate, evaluate and transfer employees under your supervision? Explain. c.What contacts are required with other departments or persons other than you immediate department in performing you job? Describe the nature and extent of the contacts.

C.Working Conditions

a.Describe the working conditions present in the location and environment of your work such as cold/heat, noise, fumes, dust, and so on. Indicate frequency and degree of exposure b.Describe any dangers or hazards present in your job.

D.

Job Qualifications (Be certain not to list the incumbent qualifications, but what is required for performance by a new employee). a.Describe the kind of previous work experience necessary for satisfactory performance of this job. b.What is the amount of experience required?

c.What kinds of knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) are needed to perform the job? d.What is the minimal level of education (grammar, high school, degree etc.) required? e.Are any special physical skills and/or manual dexterity skills required to perform the job? f.Are there any special certification, registration, license, or training requirements?

Sample Job Description
Job Title: Shift Supervisor (Mining)
Position Purpose: The purpose of this position is to maintain a safe and efficient plant operation through directing the activities of the operation’s personnel and providing a management support function for the plant superintendent.

Typical Job Duties:

1.Directs the activities of the operations personnel and coordinates the activities of the maintenance personnel. 2.Issues written communication to employees concerning personnel policies and operational concerns. 3.Administers a maintenance request program through collecting requests, scheduling, and recording maintenance activities. 4.Administers the plant tagging procedure.

5.Conducts the training and safety programs for shift employees. 6.Schedules shift assignments to reflect workload and vacation schedules. 7.Performs administrative tasks such as recording workers’ time, maintaining records concerning operational activities, and updating written procedures. 8.Prepares annual budget for assigned plan area and maintains the inventory level on these items. 9.Appraise performance of shift employees annually

10.Counsels employees on disciplinary problems and job-related performance. 11.Assumes plant superintendent’s duties when assigned.

Physical Requirements: walking and climbing stairs
Working conditions: Remote locations; secure fully furnished housing is provided. Quarterly rotations between locations are available. Four day rotating roster with morning, afternoon and night shifts. Machine and Machines Used: CRT, spectrometer, PH metre, conductivity metre Reporting Relationships: The shift supervisor reports directly to the plant superintendent. The shift supervisor directs the control room operator, two or more utility operators, trainees, and other assigned personnel, and coordinates the activities of the maintenance personnel present on shift.

Qualifications:

Education: Associate degree or equivalent training (e.g. management training classes) OR five (5) years of management experience Related Experience: Minimum of three (3) years as a control room operator for a coal-fired boiler operation.

Job Knowledge/Skills Required:

1.Comprehensive understanding of plant systems.
2.Fundamental understanding of electrical systems and motor control centres.

3.Thorough knowledge of boiler chemistry.
4.Comprehension of flow, logic, and electrical prints.
5.Ability to perform elementary mathematical and algebraic calculations.

6.Communication and human relations skills.
7.Ability to operate CRT, spectrometer, PH metre, and conductivity metre.

8.Managerial skills.

PART 3: WRITING SELECTION CRITERIA

References:

Adapted from Selection Decisions, pp 131-138 in Nkomo, S. M., Fottler, M. D., McAfee, R. B. (2008) Human Resource Management Applications: Cases, Exercises, Incidents, and Skill Builders, 6th Edition

Selection Criteria adapted from Practical Exercises: Graduate trainee selection at Yarra Bank, pp 269–271 in Stone, R. J. (2010) Managing Human Resources, 3rd Edition

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

•To help you develop skills in developing selection criteria and evaluation measures •To make you aware of the complex criteria often used to select candidates •To help you develop skills in planning and implementing semi-structured interviews •To give you practice in preparing for the selection interview

INSTRUCTIONS:Selection Criteria

Using the job description, you chose for the job advertisement:

1.Develop a list of key selection criteria for an upcoming vacancy in this position in terms of experience, qualifications, skills/abilities, personal qualities and special requirements (see template below).

2.Outline how you would evaluate the candidates on each criterion. What questions would you ask?

3.Identify your interview selection panel. Indicate the number of people to be on the panel, the positions that they hold and provide a brief explanation of why they are required on the panel.

Key selection criteria
Experience:
What type of and how much experience is required to perform this job successfully?

Qualifications:
What are the minimum formal educational qualifications required to perform this job successfully?

Skills/Abilities:
What special skills and/or abilities and knowledge are required to perform this job successfully?

Personal Qualities:
What special personal qualities (physical characteristics and personality characteristics) are required to perform this job successfully?

Special requirements:
What special requirements are required to perform this job successfully?


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