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Forecasting Essay Topics & Paper Examples

Regression Analysis

Regression Analysis is a very effective quantitative forecasting technique for short, medium and long range time horizons and can be easily updated and changed. Regression Analysis: presupposes that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent (casual) variables, which are predicted to affect the dependent(target) variable. Linearity: The observed relationship between the independent and dependent variables Example: A HR can use regression analysis to predict the number of personnel required to perform the work.` Regression projects the future based on the past historical relationship between the independent and dependent variables Simple Regression Prediction model General form of a simple LINEAR FUNCTION Y=a+bX This equation describes any straight line. The slope of the linear relationship between X and Y is…

Appearance and Weight Issues in the Workplace

1. What are the pros and cons of an airline implementing a policy that larger customers need to buy a second seat? The pros of an airline implementing a policy that larger customers need to buy a second seat is that the weight capacity regulations will be adhered to. I don’t know of a lot of pros of an airline implementing a policy that larger customers need to buy a second seat. The cons of an airline implementing a policy that larger customers need to buy a second seat would result in a population of travelling customers not using that airlines, airlines would be frowned on by family members of larger customers, airline policies would be actively monitored for discriminatory…

Supply Chain Rules of Effective Forecasting

Q1: Write a summary about the six rules of effective forecasting? Paul Saffo is the author of the article of six rules for effective forecasting. He points out that effective forecasting is very different from accurate forecasting as it is possible that a forecast is effective but it may or may not be accurate. Accurate forecasting entails being unsure of the situation and one should not race to answers. Effective forecasting on the other hand means looking at the full range of forecast, understanding the un-surety that lies ahead and not rushing to a conclusion. He also adds that a wise consumer is not a bystander but a participant and a critic. The six rules of forecasting given by him…

Forecasting the future

These are the factors that affect the whole sectors of the economy. Their effects are felt through all the facets of the economy and are usually key economic indicators that drive the economy of the country. Some of these factors are employment rates, personal finances, inflation, gross domestic product, deficit-trade and Budget, exports and imports, home sales, consumer sales (retail index), productivity index and interest rates Forecasts of general economy indicators inflation Inflation- The next one years’ forecast Inflation is the general increase in overall price of consumer goods and services. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of the currency which is essence means that the consumer’s purchasing power is diminished. Inflation is where there is so much money in the…

Capacity and Demand Planning in Coca- Cola

Coca-Cola is an American multinational beverage corporation that was found on 1892 by Asa Candler and is a manufacturer, retailer and marketer of non-alcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups. Coca-Cola operate in a make- to -stock enviroment. This process can help to provide faster service to customers from available stock and lower costs considering Coke normally has a distribution process of bulk items. The customers buy directly from the available inventory. Demand management and distribution is therefore a fey focus.They use the continuous flow method of manufacturing. The products are made in a continuous fashion and tend to be highly standardized and automated with very high volumes of production. The production flow of Coca Cola involves passing sub-assemblies/parts from one stage…

Demand and Supply Planning

Abstract This paper demonstrates the concept of Supply Chain and the understanding of its different parties. How existing practices in demand planning improve forecast accuracy with advanced statistical forecasting capabilities and how demand planning is different than other SCM parties in structuring flexible hierarchy models & inventory integration. In addition to explore the Integrated Demand and Supply Planning for Consumer Goods and Services Companies, where we show a Case Study for Nestle Company using weather forecast data that shows a significant insight into the extent to which difference products and/or customer sales were impacted by weather. On the other hand, Globalization and the challenges of managing a global operation – such as forecasting in the face of uncertainty and reducing…

Financial Forecasting – Time Series Models

The economic recession felt in the United States since the collapse of the housing market in 2007 can be seen by various trends in the housing market. This collapse claimed some of the largest financial institutions in the U.S. such as Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers, as they held over-leveraged positions in the mortgage backed securities market. Credit became widely available to unqualified borrowers during the nineties and the early part of the next decade which caused bankers to act predatorily in their lending practices, as they could easily sell and package subprime mortgage loans on leverage. This act caused a bubble that would later burst when unqualified homebuyers began defaulting on their loans causing a tremendous downfall in the…

Capacity Planning

In this paper we will illustrate three basic steps for capacity planning: 1. Determine Service Level Requirements The first step in the capacity planning process is to categorize the work done by systems and to quantify users’ expectations for how that work gets done. 2. Analyze Current Capacity Next, the current capacity of the system must be analyzed to determine how it is meeting the needs of the users. 3. Planning for the future Finally, using forecasts of future business activity, future system requirements are determined. Implementing the required changes in system configuration will ensure that sufficient capacity will be available to maintain service levels, even as circumstances change in the future. Determine Service Level Requirements We have organized this…

Projected Total Sales of Sundance Direct Sales

Introduction Billboards, signage and eye-catching advertisement paraphernalia of different direct selling companies are sprouting everywhere, either local or international. Many companies established names and compete to prolong their standing in the business world. Defined in businessdictionary.com, direct selling is a face to face presentation, demonstration, and sale of products or services, usually at the home or office of a prospect by the independent direct sales representatives. Direct Selling contributes greatly on the economic development of the country; it manifests the Filipino spirit of enterprise and self-reliance. This industry gains greater popularity today than its early years. One of the popular direct selling companies in the Philippines is Sundance Direct Sales (Footworks Marketing Corporation). It was established on August 1999. Before…

Yankee Fork and Hoe Company

A. Synopsis Yankee Fork and Hoe is a leading producer of garden tools which is a mature, cost sensitive market. Currently the firm is falling behind on on-time deliveries. This is due to the lack of utilizing a good forecasting method. Alan Roberts, the president of Yankee Fork and Hoe, has hired a consultant to look into the reasons why orders are not being fulfilled on time. Sharon Place, the consultant, was directed to the Bow Rake product line, for this is where many of the complaint stem from. B. Purpose The purpose for this case is to examine the forecasting methods of Yankee Fork and Rake or lack thereof. Analysis of the current system in place will provide a…

Island Shades Case Study

The case story Island Shades describes a great example of how to present an effective goal with the proper steps. Terry’s goal was very detailed on her present and future goals. She set up her objective creating the idea of selling good quality eyewear to consumers. She also has identified her options of affordable inventory to purchase. Terry’s key performance areas are focused on the location of her store and the brand of upscale products to provide consumers in that location. So I believe her goal is realistic because she has researched on her products quality, the customer demand for the product in the area and considered the income range that would afford the products. Not only is Terry’s goal…

Forecasting Lost Sales Case Study

Carlson Department store suffered heavy damage from a hurricane on August 31. As a result the store was closed for four months, September through December. Carlson is in dispute with its insurance company regarding the lost sales for the length of time the store was closed. Section II: Problem Identification Two issues to address are the amount of sales Carlson department store would have made if there had been no hurricane and if they are entitled to any compensation for excess sales due to increased business activity after the storm. One further important factor is that eight billion dollars in federal disaster relief and insurance money came in to the county which in turn increased sales at department stores and…

Qualitative forecasting techniques

Qualitative Forecasting Approaches Qualitative forecasting methods are based primarily on human judgement. Quantitative forecasting methods are based primarily on the mathematical modelling of historical data. Here we provide a brief overview of the most important qualitative forecasting approaches. In many environments the time horizon is closely linked to the type of forecasting method used. Longer term and higher level forecasting will often require qualitative forecasting techniques. Such techniques may vary significantly in how they are applied. We begin with methods that rely on quantitative analysis to some degree and proceed to the more judgmental methods. Economic indicators The tracking of economic time series originated in the US following the great depression of the 1930’s. It was realised that monthly, quarterly…

Leitax Case Analysis

QUESTION 1 Digital camera market has enjoyed tremendous growth since it was introduced in the photographic industry. Starting in 1998, price has been falling rapidly. In addition, the development of CMOS allowed digital camera to not only capture professional market, but also enter consumer market. It was estimated that in 2006 forecast would peak with 63% penetration rate for digital cameras in the US. After 2006, the growth rate was expected to fall negative. Product lives for digital cameras had been shortened. While an average life was between 17 and 22 months, high-end, feature packed products had the shortest life cycle. However, the manufacturing lead-time for digital cameras was long. Taking Leitax for example, its manufacturing lead-time was beyond 13…

Business Forecasting Assignment Operations

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today’s uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally either qualitative or quantitative, with each offering specific advantages and disadvantages. Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesForecasting can be classified into qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative techniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions. The Delphi technique, a common form of qualitative forecasting, allows experts to create an effective forecast under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Time’s series forecasting, a quantitative technique, uses a statistical analysis of past…

Forecasting Techniques

The objective of this assignment is to investigate different business forecasting methods, and demonstrate the benefits of their use for a specific organization. We have learned that demand forecasting invokes the processes of determining exactly what service/products are needed, in what quantity, and in what amount of time. Organizations that are able to implement effective forecasting will be better equipped to find the balance between managing demand for a product/service and the capacity to meet this demand. The ability of optimizing this unique balance enables an organization to use this as a competitive advantage over their competitors There are a variety of forecasting models to choose from and organizations should first decide which type of business decision is being made….

M& L with details calculation

What are some of the potential benefits of a more formalized approach to forecasting? Q2.Prepare a Weekly forecast for the next four weeks for each product. Briefly explain why you chose the methods you used. Forecasting helps to predict the future orders, in turns it ensures customers demands are constantly being fulfilled; which eventually makes the customers happy. Forecasting helps the company to remain competitive, it reduces inventory costs. Besides, forecasting helps to prepare for an increase or drop in sales, it saves on labour costs. And all these factors bring higher profit to the company. Using Linear Methods to predict the next four weeks forecast Now, I’ll show the forecast of product 2 using the simple/naive approach. The reasons…

The Body Shop International Case Study

1. The assumptions that were used to derive the numbers in this forecast were found by taking the averages of the historical data that was given for 1999-2001. Instead of using the assumptions that were given by The Body Shop, I thought it would be more practical to use the trends shown in the historical data since that is more relevant to what might happen, rather than what The Body Shop wants to see happen. Of course it is possible to take reducing expenses and raising income into consideration but it is more realistic to follow the trends of the most recent years. It is however important to keep in mind that improvement from year to year is always good…

Highline Financial Services

Every origination needs to separate themselves from their competition. From offering the newest and latest products to offering outstanding service. Highland Financial Services Itd. Is no different from other companies. Standing out from other organizations is critical for the company’s success. Managing partner Freddie Mack must use the information that he has been provided with to find if he may need to hire or layoff any personnel for the upcoming year. Doing this accurately will help the company reach their goals and insure the companies well being for the future. Freedie Mack will need to use moving average date technique. This technique that averages a number of recent values, updated as new values become available (Stevenson, 2012 p. 84). Freedie…

Bottlenecks That Face Riordan Manufacturing

China plant operates as a decentralized unit of Riordan Manufacturing. Parts are purchased by buyers in the China Plant’s purchasing department from a local Chinese company. While this company attempts to maintain adequate quantities of electric motors in stock to meet all its order requirements, its on-time deliveries over the past year have averaged only 93%. Part of the China’s plant’s business is a make-to-stock operation in which the future demand for fans is forecasted based on taking the average of sales for the last three years and extrapolating it into the next year. Pontiac facility has to maintain sufficient stocks of a wide variety of raw materials in order to quickly respond to customer requests for new custom plastic…

Process Design for Riordan Manufacturing

This paper discusses the proposal package for Riordan, which handles each step of electric fans from inception to production. The paper also includes the material requirement-planning phase of fans being manufactured at the China Plant. An analysis of the existing production process of the Riordan electric fans provides the basic outline for designing the new process to remove bottlenecks. In addition, the production forecast for the Riordan electric fans, and the Lean Production implementation plan is discussed. The cover letter describes the coordination of aggregate operations planning and suggested TQM process to define the strategic objective of the company. MRP The China plant of Riordan Manufacturing is the production unit, which applies material requirement planning to meet the time-phased requirement of…

Example Rates: USPS Versus UPS

With the USPS flat rate boxes, “if it fits, it ships,” (up to 70 pounds), making the service especially good for dense or heavy products. As an example of just what this might mean, HYPERLINK “http://thechive.com/2011/04/05/the-usps-flat-rate-box-claims-that-if-it-fits-it-ships-or-does-it-20-photos/” TheChive website blogged about flat rate shipping early this month. The blog post’s author shipped nearly 60 pounds of pennies in a flat rate box. The package arrived on time and in great shape for the flat rate price, a similar package shipped on another carrier would have been several times more expensive. Below are several price comparisons, looking at USPS flat rate shipping versus United Parcel Service (UPS). In the first comparison, I looked at shipping rates for 1, 3, and 5 pound…

Valve Steams Ahead

Value is a software company that views it’s day-to-day business structure in what only can be described as organic and flat. No planning, procedures or organizational structure is claimed by the company to be “A barrier against codified decisions of labour” (Valve Corporation, 2012), which leads to no long term business goals and no clear path of succession for the business. It would also possibly lead to division amongst staff due to lack of control and planning and poor organizational behavior. Strategy Implementation is a fundamental role in business success and is defined by Schermerhorn, Davidson, Poole, Simon, Woods and Chau as ‘the process of putting strategies into action” (Schermerhorn, 2011) Valve’s Strategy implementation and poor strategic planning appears to…

Manging the Springfield Herald

SH 13.1 – What criticisms can you make concerning the method of forecasting that involved taking the new subscriptions data for the prior three months as the basis for future projections? – 3 months is a valid for comparing quarterly growth retroactively, but more time is needed for a valid future forecast. – Are there seasonal quarters historically where sales are higher? Also, the factors that have affected the sales in the past three months must also remain constant for the entire year or at least the average sale/hour should be consistent. Here the average sale/ hour for the prev months were as follows: Month 1= 4 ; Month 2 = 3.89 ; Month 3 = 5.1 . Again, the…

Chase Strategy

What are some of the challenges associated with using the chase strategy and why? The chase strategy is one of three production strategies for aggregate planning in use today. Chase strategy is a form of demand matching. This is done by forecasting the expected demand set by previous sales or projected sales. The purpose of this is to meet or match the demand of their customers. It is also an appropriate strategy with variable demand such as seasonal items. The chase strategy is mostly used in service based industry that concentrate on meeting demand. Due to the unforeseen forecast, the company must hire and fire their employee to meet the production needs. United parcel service and Wal-Mart are examples of…

Business Modeling

Ted Ralley is working on conducting a forecast for the upcoming year for an automobile part company. The data that will be used for this research has been collected from the quarterly sales from the previous four years. Ted wants to determine what is most accurate way to determine the forecast for 2008. The model should also help determined if the economic situation and oil prices are affecting significantly the sales of the company. The two models that were provided were thoroughly analyzed to determine which model was the most appropriate to utilize. These models were a regression model with factors, seasons and an additive Holt-Winters model. The forecasts also show that there is a significant change in the sales…

The Glass Slipper Restaurant

For years The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort community near a popular ski area of New Mexico. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when the ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area. When James and Deena Weltee built The Glass Slipper, they had a vision of the ultimate dining experience. As the view of surrounding mountains was breathtaking, a high priority was placed on having large windows and providing a spectacular view from anywhere inside the restaurant. Special attention was also given to the lighting, colors, and overall ambiance, resulting in a truly magnificent experience for all who came to enjoy gourmet dining. Since its opening, The Glass…

Interventions in order to increase the National Achievement Test of 4th Year Students of Malabon National High School

The primordial purpose of this study is to provide the students with a complete and balanced education and to develop their performance in National Achievement Test (Nat) . Thus, the results of this study will benefit the students, the teachers and the school administrators. This study is significant because it will provide the indispensable facts for the students of Malabon National High School who were taking the National Achievment Test (NAT). including the faculty and school administrators as a result in a pervasive exposure of the aforementioned subjects. This study will serve as the basis for future plans of action by the school administrators with regard to the necessary actions for the school and for the students who were taking…

Forecasting Monthly Sales

Background For years The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort community near a popular ski area of New Mexico. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when the ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area. When James and Deena Weltee built The Glass Slipper, they had a vision of the ultimate dining experience. As the view of surrounding mountains was breathtaking, a high priority was placed on having large windows and providing a spectacular view from anywhere inside the restaurant. Special attention was also given to the lighting, colors, and overall ambiance, resulting in a truly magnificent experience for all who came to enjoy gourmet dining. Since its opening, The…

Forecasting the manpower needs of Ya Kun

Question-1: How would you forecast the manpower needs of Ya Kun? There are few ways by which we can forecast the manpower needs of Ya Kun Kaya. They are: * Trend analysis * Ratio analysis * Scatter plot and * Computerized system Based on trend analysis, we can find new recruit by studying the variation of their past employment levels which means that they can provide an initial estimate of future staffing needs, but employment levels rarely depend just on the passage of time. They looked their past performance of sales, productivity and so on to estimate their employee also because if their performance goes beyond their expectation like Ya kun that have many outlets throughout the world, they may…