The third largest land area in the world belongs to the People’s Republic of China. Presently, its population is the largest on the record and its capital, Beijing is the economic and cultural center. China’s economic growth greatly improves due to the trend of poverty reduction during the period of 1980-1990. From 542 million to 375 million, shrinking by 167 million, China’s poverty population exceedingly reduced. Angang stated that China’s achievements in poverty reduction made huge contributions to the cause of poverty reduction of the world (2). According to World Bank, the poverty population of the world dropped off by 98.
3 million. Among the five Asian countries with the most condensed poverty population are India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, and according to the industrial poverty line, China’s current proportion of poverty population is the lowest. Statistics show that China has experienced a period of human history in which poverty population decreased by a largest margin in the past 2 decades, and reversed the trend that poverty population has been increasing in the past five decades in the world history, causing the poverty population of the world to decrease for the first time.
That is to say, without China’s efforts of poverty reduction, the poverty population of the world would have increased from 848 million in 1980 to 917 million in 1990. (Angang, 2-3). Ambassador Baodong stated that the Development-oriented Poverty reduction program for Rural China for the period of 2001-2010 generated grand effects in the global poverty reduction. The number of rural population in China declined to 21. 48 million and 2. 3% of national poverty incidence was accounted for the 55% of global poverty reduction in 2007 (Baodong, 1).
Technological development plays a vital role in the country’s economic growth. From 1980 to 1990, China’s expenditure amounted to US $17billion for imported technology. The trend of research and development made an immense leap. As a result there has been a modest amount of growth in the country’s development however the inefficiencies posted to be the chief dilemma. At the end of 1990, statistics illustrated that 50 of Shanghai’s large and medium enterprises only reached 10 percent of international level of quality standards and 30 percent arrived at the prototype stage using the new programs.
From the year 2001 – 2005, this country became a major IT nation in the world, standing third place in manufacturing setting and first rank in telecommunications. The business cycle of the Chinese economy had undergone substantial magnitude from the time when the government established in the mid1950’s centralized economic management and planning. The period from 1979-1990 was depicted with relative stability and high escalation. In 1955-1978 economic growth rates, the movement went from 5. 7 percent to 9.
3 percent in 1979 to 1993 period. Investment cycles, harvest fluctuations, political disturbances, inflation and periodic retrenchments are the major factors that affect business cycles. Downturn was evident during 1980-1981, then an upswing from 1982 – 1989 and the business cycle in 1989 was another downturn and an upturn in 1990. Imai’s stated that his conclusion on Chinese business cycle stated that cycle interacts with exogenous shocks and generates business cycles with dissimilar amplitude and duration.
An investment cycle is generated by patterned reaction of central planners who adjust the level of fixed investment in response to capacity pressure, an indicator of macroeconomic tension. An instititutional prerequisite of this cycle is the weak financial accountability of state enterprises (178). Economists added that the efficiency wedge, which represents institutional change and technology advance, was the main source of economic fluctuations in 1978 – 2006. The amplitude of it fluctuation declined after 1992, which resulted in moderation of business cycle fluctuations.
Distortions manifest themselves as taxes on investment, which represents frictions in the capital market, became another economic fluctuation source after 1992, which is different from results of business cycle accounting on US and Japan data. Results also show that government consumption and net exports played minor roles in generating business cycles (Gao). China’s world trade generated a strong impact on its growth. Imports and exports led China to be among the world’s most significant export destinations for other Asian countries. Since the year 1979, the country’s global trade gradually improved.
Presently, Japan’s exports of 11 percent came from China, before it was only 2 percent during the end of 1990. The Chinese government implemented tariff reductions in order to continue its longstanding trend in world trade. During 2004, China’s tariff rates dropped from 0. 6 to 10. 4 percent. Part of the country’s trade reforms to (WTO) World Trade Organization is to lessen tariff rates and eliminate import quotas and licenses, opening sectors for foreign country involvement such as telecommunications, financial and insurance services.
Complete access to foreign participants is greatly assured through automatic licensing procedures. Eradication of limitations on trading and domestic distribution for majority of goods is also part of the plan. According to WTO, China will retain import state trading for wheat, rice, corn, sugar, tobacco, cotton and chemical fertilizers, as with export trading, corn, tea, rice, coal, silk, crude and processed oils, cotton, tungsten and ammonium products are included. In addition to this, China had been permanently bestowed with the most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment by other participants of WTO.
As response to this honor, some countries have abolished restrictions on China’s imports. The contributing factor for the possible boost in China’s trade is when quota restrictions are lifted. China’s membership to World Trade Organization made enormous effect on some of the trends in relation to the role of China in international trade. Examples comprise of its magnetism to foreign investors and developing role in global export base. This is evident in IMF statistics that showed its market share in Japan, United States and Europe, from the period 1980 to 1990, an overall total of 10.
3 percent, and end of 2003, a whopping 37 percent (Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics). “Just as water always flows to the lowest point, China is bound to be the first option for foreign capital investment” (“China’s Cheap” A1). China’s labor force is considered cheap and also of good quality. It is estimated that 100 million of employees in rural areas are likely to be waiting to be changed to urban workers. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a significant gauge to quantify the labor supply of PR China. In the period of 1980-1990, the LFPR in China is higher among other countries.
The most likely basis is moderately low income level. There is high participation in the labor force among women because one wage earner is inadequate to support a family. In the last 5 years (2002-2007), women’s participation in the labor force exceedingly increased according to APEC statistics. Presently, the government was executing the guidelines which were implemented during 1997, which was the division of labor market between urban and rural areas. The labor market is exclusively for high school graduates or those with lower educational background.
This probable outcome of this situation is the layoffs in urban places and labor surplus in rural areas. In the coming years, it has been forecasted that China might face a nationwide labor shortage. The country is fast approaching the “Lewisian turning point”. It is a theory by Arthur Lewis stating the turning point from surplus labor to labor scarcity. In the year 1980, State Council issued a decree prohibiting the use of foreign exchange for making payments in China. Foreign exchange rates or Waihui, equal in value to the Renminbi at effective rate, were put into circulation for use by nonresidents only.
It could be use for transportation fares, hotel bills and purchases at Friendship stores. Then in 1981, the foreign trade rate was since fixed at 2. 80 from 1. 750. In 1985, the internal settlement rate was abolished and all trade was governed by the Effective Rate. A foreign exchange retention quota also exists for a portion of export proceeds. Authorization was granted for Chinese residents to hold foreign exchange and open foreign exchange accounts and to deposit and withdraw funds in foreign exchange.
In the year 1986, The trade-weighted basket of currencies was abandoned and the Effective Rate was placed on a controlled float based on developments in the balance of payments and in costs and exchange rates of China’s major competitors. Shanghai International Trust and Investment Corporation was authorized to handle exchange business. In 1988, early this year, all domestic entities which are allowed to retain foreign exchange earnings were granted permission to trade in the adjustment centers, and by October 1988, 80 adjustment centers were established.
Initially, a relatively small volume of transactions took place in these markets, but the volume has increased substantially since access to the centers was expanded. The Foreign Exchange Swap Rate was 6. 60 from 3. 72. In 1989, regulations were issued governing the use of foreign exchange obtained in foreign exchange adjustment centers. Imports of inputs for the agricultural sector, textile, and for technologically advance and light industries were given priority. Purchases of foreign exchange for a wide range of consumer products were prohibited.
Such corporations are permitted to sell in China for foreign exchange provided that the sales involve purchases under the Government’s annual import plan, sales in Special Economic Zones and other promotional areas, and sales of import substitutes. The Foreign Exchange Swap Rate was 5. 40 from 3. 72. By the end of 1990, The Foreign Exchange Swap Rate was 5. 70 from 5. 22. (Ka Fu) Presently, Premier Jiabao stated in the Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of the African Development Bank Group in Shanghai that the government continues to push the Renminbi exchange rate reform in order to confer larger range to the role of the market.
The reform permits citizens to purchase more foreign currencies and commercial banks. Financial market development has been highlighted with China’s monetary reforms. The People’s Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China’s monetary strategy and enhancing the role of interest rates in its conduct (Maino, 44).
The most suitable monetary strategy for China would be an eclectic monetary policy framework, whereby the growth in money supply and bank credit extension are used as intermediate guidelines for the determination of short-term interest rates. In addition, in deciding on the most appropriate monetary policy stance, developments in a number of other variables need to be taken into consideration, because the monetary aggregates are loosing some of their usefulness as indicators of future inflation due to structural changes in the economy (Maino, 40).
The IMF also points out that Chinese monetary policy could improve noticeably if the central bank were granted more discretionary power to set interest rates. In the last two years, increases in the trade surplus and significant inflows of foreign capital have led to a large accumulation of international reserves, which has further complicated monetary policy handling. In this respect, the IMF has welcomed the changes introduced into the Chinese exchange rate system as a significant step towards making this system more flexible.
Although it is difficult to define an “equilibrium” exchange rate, and not just revaluation, must be adopted if china is to increase the independence of its monetary policy and shield its economy against external shocks (Ruete, 8). Works Cited Angang, Hu. China’s economic growth and poverty reduction (1978-2002). 2 June 2003. IMF. 20 April 2008 <http://www. imf. org/external/np/apd/seminars/2003/newdelhi/angang. pdf>. Baodong, Li. Remarks by Ambassador LI Baodong At Ministerial Roundtable Breakfast of Economic and Social Council On “Food, Nutrition and Agriculture: Working Together to End Hunger”.
12 July 2007. China-UN. 22 April 2008 <http://www. china-un. ch/eng/xwdt/t339666. htm> “China’s Cheap, High-quality Labor Lures Foreign Investment”. Editorial. Xinhua News Agency 21 December 2002, A1. Gao, Xu. Business Cycle Accoounting for the Chinese Economy. N. p. : n. p, n. d. http://www. wdi. umich. edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp795. pdf Imai, Hiroyuki, Explaining China’s Business Cycles. 6 June 1996. IDE. 22 April 2008 <http://www. ide. go. jp/English/Publish/De/pdf/96_02_03. pdf>. Ka Fu, Wong.
International Economics. 1 January 2007. 23 April 2008. <http://intl. econ. cuhk. edu. hk/exchange_rate_regime/index. php? cid=8>. Manio, Rodolfo. China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation. 1 January 2007. Social Science Research Network. 23 April 2008 <http://papers. ssrn. com/sol3/papers. cfm? abstract_id=959761>. Ruete, Javier. The Development of China’s Export Performance. 7 March 2006. Central Reserve Bank of Peru. 23 April 2008 <http://www. bcrp. gob. pe/bcr/dmdocuments/Ingles/Comunicaciones/Press_200602. pdf>.
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